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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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