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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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