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Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China’s stronger-than-expected steel production, combined with an aggressive restocking of inventory levels and the country’s ports had driven iron ore prices well above expectations.
Iron ore stocks have also spiked as analysts upgrade their price forecasts for the commodity on the back of another unexpected recovery. The record prices of last May tumbled unexpectedly fast to under $US100 a tonne, and currently iron ore is taking the pundits again by surprise with a new run that now has it back near $US150/t. The sentiment is apparently still driven by signals about increased infrastructure spending in China and upgraded price forecasts. Nevertheless, and apart from the price of the commodity itself, it is very important that we still see the good fundamentals and dynamics there, which in any case support our overall optimism and hopes that better and more stable freight rates for Capes must be around the corner.
Looking at Australian iron ore exports to China, it is positive to see they remained robust last month despite the backdrop of rising market prices due to multiple factors including weather disruption and labor “shortage” concerns. Industry analysts said the proportion of Australian iron ore in China’s total iron ore imports may be reduced to below 60 percent in 2022 for the first time since 2015, especially as China is still diversifying its sources of supplies and deepening industry upgrading while pursuing low-carbon targets at the same time.
The price of iron ore was also reflected in the rising imports in China in recent weeks, and perhaps it is more important to keep an eye on inventory levels as well. According to data from industry sources, the total inventory of iron ore imported by steel mills across China reached about 117.57 million tons this week, an increase of 470,200 tons from the previous month. Of course it is always possible that the price increase could simply and perhaps only be related to seasonal speculation itself.
Overall since 2015, China’s iron ore imports from Australia and Brazil have accounted for nearly 80 percent of all imports, of which imports from Australia have exceeded 60 percent. Bilateral relations have soured again recently due to Australia’s attitude toward China, which has caused disruption for trade activities. Iron ore exports are still among the few remaining products that are still in high demand in China, partly due to the needs of the domestic construction sector. However, the expectation is that import proportion from Australia in 2022 is likely to drop below 60 percent, having been 61.6 percent in 2021 and 62.5 percent in 2020. We also hear a lot about the change in policy and the potential domestic supply of iron ore in China, not sure however if all this is something that will really re-shape the market dynamics in the future.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 16 October 21
COAL IS 'KING' AS GAS PRICES SOAR, TOTAL CEO SAYS - AND IT’S BACKFIRING ON CLEANER ENERGY GOALS - CNBC
Surging natural gas prices have led to a jump in coal use, with plants in Europe and Asia firing back up as temperatures decline and the world grap ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
VIETNAM'S COAL-FIRED POWER MAY DOUBLE BY 2030 UNDER DRAFT ENERGY PLAN - REUTERS
Vietnam may double the amount of coal-fired electric generation it installs by 2030 under a draft power development plan submitted to the prime min ...
Friday, 15 October 21
AUSTRALIA'S WHITEHAVEN EXPECTS TO BE DEBT-FREE NEXT YEAR AS COAL PRICES SOAR - REUTERS
Australia’s Whitehaven Coal WHC.AX said on Thursday it expects to be debt-free by early 2022, as thermal coal prices surge to record highs on ...
Friday, 15 October 21
WINTER CHILL KEEPS CHINA'S COAL PRICES HIGH, POWER CRUNCH STOKES INFLATION - REUTERS
China coal prices held near record highs on Thursday as cold weather swept into the country’s north and power plants stocked up on the fuel t ...
Friday, 15 October 21
GLOBAL STEEL DEMAND GROWTH DOWNGRADED FOR 2021 DUE TO CHINA - WORLD STEEL ASSOCIATION
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released an update of its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that ste ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- The University of Queensland
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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