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Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China’s stronger-than-expected steel production, combined with an aggressive restocking of inventory levels and the country’s ports had driven iron ore prices well above expectations.
Iron ore stocks have also spiked as analysts upgrade their price forecasts for the commodity on the back of another unexpected recovery. The record prices of last May tumbled unexpectedly fast to under $US100 a tonne, and currently iron ore is taking the pundits again by surprise with a new run that now has it back near $US150/t. The sentiment is apparently still driven by signals about increased infrastructure spending in China and upgraded price forecasts. Nevertheless, and apart from the price of the commodity itself, it is very important that we still see the good fundamentals and dynamics there, which in any case support our overall optimism and hopes that better and more stable freight rates for Capes must be around the corner.
Looking at Australian iron ore exports to China, it is positive to see they remained robust last month despite the backdrop of rising market prices due to multiple factors including weather disruption and labor “shortage” concerns. Industry analysts said the proportion of Australian iron ore in China’s total iron ore imports may be reduced to below 60 percent in 2022 for the first time since 2015, especially as China is still diversifying its sources of supplies and deepening industry upgrading while pursuing low-carbon targets at the same time.
The price of iron ore was also reflected in the rising imports in China in recent weeks, and perhaps it is more important to keep an eye on inventory levels as well. According to data from industry sources, the total inventory of iron ore imported by steel mills across China reached about 117.57 million tons this week, an increase of 470,200 tons from the previous month. Of course it is always possible that the price increase could simply and perhaps only be related to seasonal speculation itself.
Overall since 2015, China’s iron ore imports from Australia and Brazil have accounted for nearly 80 percent of all imports, of which imports from Australia have exceeded 60 percent. Bilateral relations have soured again recently due to Australia’s attitude toward China, which has caused disruption for trade activities. Iron ore exports are still among the few remaining products that are still in high demand in China, partly due to the needs of the domestic construction sector. However, the expectation is that import proportion from Australia in 2022 is likely to drop below 60 percent, having been 61.6 percent in 2021 and 62.5 percent in 2020. We also hear a lot about the change in policy and the potential domestic supply of iron ore in China, not sure however if all this is something that will really re-shape the market dynamics in the future.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 13 October 21
FBX INDEX: THE IMPOSSIBILITY OF SHORT-TERM FORECASTING - LARS JENSEN
Will freight rates on Asia-Europe or the Transpacific reach 40.000 USD/FFE in the run-up prior to Chinese New Year 2022? Or will they start droppin ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA FLOODS: COAL PRICE HITS FRESH HIGH AS MINES SHUT - BBC
The price of coal used in China’s power plants has surged to a new record high as another of the country’s key mining regions is hit by ...
Tuesday, 12 October 21
BUMA SIGNS CONDITIONAL AGREEMENT FOR AUSTRALIAN ASSET ACQUISITION
PT Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, through its newly incorporated Australian subsidiary, BUMA International Pty ...
Tuesday, 12 October 21
INDONESIA'S COAL-BASED POWER PLANTS ARE SUBJECT TO CARBON TAX NEXT YEAR, ELECTRICITY COSTS COULD RISE! - CNBC
The Indonesian government is planning plans to implement a carbon tax of IDR 30 per kilogram (kg) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) or equivalent ...
Monday, 11 October 21
COAL ABANDONMENT IN POWER GENERATION PROMOTED GAS DEMAND GROWTH IN EUROPE - TOP MANAGER: TASS
Accelerated abandonment of coal in power generation and the overall recovery of economic activity facilitated gas demand growth in Europe and led t ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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