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Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China’s stronger-than-expected steel production, combined with an aggressive restocking of inventory levels and the country’s ports had driven iron ore prices well above expectations.
Iron ore stocks have also spiked as analysts upgrade their price forecasts for the commodity on the back of another unexpected recovery. The record prices of last May tumbled unexpectedly fast to under $US100 a tonne, and currently iron ore is taking the pundits again by surprise with a new run that now has it back near $US150/t. The sentiment is apparently still driven by signals about increased infrastructure spending in China and upgraded price forecasts. Nevertheless, and apart from the price of the commodity itself, it is very important that we still see the good fundamentals and dynamics there, which in any case support our overall optimism and hopes that better and more stable freight rates for Capes must be around the corner.
Looking at Australian iron ore exports to China, it is positive to see they remained robust last month despite the backdrop of rising market prices due to multiple factors including weather disruption and labor “shortage” concerns. Industry analysts said the proportion of Australian iron ore in China’s total iron ore imports may be reduced to below 60 percent in 2022 for the first time since 2015, especially as China is still diversifying its sources of supplies and deepening industry upgrading while pursuing low-carbon targets at the same time.
The price of iron ore was also reflected in the rising imports in China in recent weeks, and perhaps it is more important to keep an eye on inventory levels as well. According to data from industry sources, the total inventory of iron ore imported by steel mills across China reached about 117.57 million tons this week, an increase of 470,200 tons from the previous month. Of course it is always possible that the price increase could simply and perhaps only be related to seasonal speculation itself.
Overall since 2015, China’s iron ore imports from Australia and Brazil have accounted for nearly 80 percent of all imports, of which imports from Australia have exceeded 60 percent. Bilateral relations have soured again recently due to Australia’s attitude toward China, which has caused disruption for trade activities. Iron ore exports are still among the few remaining products that are still in high demand in China, partly due to the needs of the domestic construction sector. However, the expectation is that import proportion from Australia in 2022 is likely to drop below 60 percent, having been 61.6 percent in 2021 and 62.5 percent in 2020. We also hear a lot about the change in policy and the potential domestic supply of iron ore in China, not sure however if all this is something that will really re-shape the market dynamics in the future.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 14 October 21
SPIKING COAL PRICES: DON’T BLAME THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Volatility highlights urgency for renewables-based energy solutions
“Energy crisis.” The phrase evokes nearly-forgotten ...
Thursday, 14 October 21
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 588 MMST IN 2021, UP 53 MMST YOY
U.S. coal production in EIA's forecasts totals 588 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 53 MMst more than in 2020.
According ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
COAL PRICES ARE ROARING BACK AMID A GLOBAL ENERGY CRUNCH - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Soaring coal prices have placed Australia’s mining and energy exports on track to reach a record $349 billion this year evenas the value of t ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA ISN'T THE ONLY HUGE ASIAN ECONOMY WITH A COAL SHORTAGE NOW - CNBC
China is not the only Asian giant grappling with an energy crunch — India is also teetering on the edge of a power crisis.
Mos ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following up on our insight on May 2021, where we discussed about the Capesize market outlook for the second half of the year, we are pleased to se ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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