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Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China’s stronger-than-expected steel production, combined with an aggressive restocking of inventory levels and the country’s ports had driven iron ore prices well above expectations.
Iron ore stocks have also spiked as analysts upgrade their price forecasts for the commodity on the back of another unexpected recovery. The record prices of last May tumbled unexpectedly fast to under $US100 a tonne, and currently iron ore is taking the pundits again by surprise with a new run that now has it back near $US150/t. The sentiment is apparently still driven by signals about increased infrastructure spending in China and upgraded price forecasts. Nevertheless, and apart from the price of the commodity itself, it is very important that we still see the good fundamentals and dynamics there, which in any case support our overall optimism and hopes that better and more stable freight rates for Capes must be around the corner.
Looking at Australian iron ore exports to China, it is positive to see they remained robust last month despite the backdrop of rising market prices due to multiple factors including weather disruption and labor “shortage” concerns. Industry analysts said the proportion of Australian iron ore in China’s total iron ore imports may be reduced to below 60 percent in 2022 for the first time since 2015, especially as China is still diversifying its sources of supplies and deepening industry upgrading while pursuing low-carbon targets at the same time.
The price of iron ore was also reflected in the rising imports in China in recent weeks, and perhaps it is more important to keep an eye on inventory levels as well. According to data from industry sources, the total inventory of iron ore imported by steel mills across China reached about 117.57 million tons this week, an increase of 470,200 tons from the previous month. Of course it is always possible that the price increase could simply and perhaps only be related to seasonal speculation itself.
Overall since 2015, China’s iron ore imports from Australia and Brazil have accounted for nearly 80 percent of all imports, of which imports from Australia have exceeded 60 percent. Bilateral relations have soured again recently due to Australia’s attitude toward China, which has caused disruption for trade activities. Iron ore exports are still among the few remaining products that are still in high demand in China, partly due to the needs of the domestic construction sector. However, the expectation is that import proportion from Australia in 2022 is likely to drop below 60 percent, having been 61.6 percent in 2021 and 62.5 percent in 2020. We also hear a lot about the change in policy and the potential domestic supply of iron ore in China, not sure however if all this is something that will really re-shape the market dynamics in the future.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 October 21
HARD COAL REMAINS AN IMPORTANT FACTOR FOR SECURITY OF SUPPLY - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
- Hard coal remains an important factor for security of supply
- Increase of around 35% in hard-coal-fired power generation in the first three ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S COAL SHORTAGE TO EASE IN COMING MONTHS, INDUSTRY BODY SAYS - REUTERS
China’s coal shortage will likely ease in coming months, with domestic production and imports already showing signs of picking up, a coal ind ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT DROPS IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output dropped 0.9 percent year on year to 330 million tonnes last month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
OVER-RELIANCE ON COAL IN OUR POWER MIX HURTING INDIA - LIVEMINT
In spite of the renewables push, coal still accounts for about 50% of India’s installed power capacity. That means a simultaneous demand and ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA COAL HITS RECORD HIGH AMID TIGHT SUPPLIES - REUTERS
China coal prices hit a record high on Tuesday buoyed by a widening power crunch and cold weather despite Beijing’s efforts to bolster supply ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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