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Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China’s stronger-than-expected steel production, combined with an aggressive restocking of inventory levels and the country’s ports had driven iron ore prices well above expectations.
Iron ore stocks have also spiked as analysts upgrade their price forecasts for the commodity on the back of another unexpected recovery. The record prices of last May tumbled unexpectedly fast to under $US100 a tonne, and currently iron ore is taking the pundits again by surprise with a new run that now has it back near $US150/t. The sentiment is apparently still driven by signals about increased infrastructure spending in China and upgraded price forecasts. Nevertheless, and apart from the price of the commodity itself, it is very important that we still see the good fundamentals and dynamics there, which in any case support our overall optimism and hopes that better and more stable freight rates for Capes must be around the corner.
Looking at Australian iron ore exports to China, it is positive to see they remained robust last month despite the backdrop of rising market prices due to multiple factors including weather disruption and labor “shortage” concerns. Industry analysts said the proportion of Australian iron ore in China’s total iron ore imports may be reduced to below 60 percent in 2022 for the first time since 2015, especially as China is still diversifying its sources of supplies and deepening industry upgrading while pursuing low-carbon targets at the same time.
The price of iron ore was also reflected in the rising imports in China in recent weeks, and perhaps it is more important to keep an eye on inventory levels as well. According to data from industry sources, the total inventory of iron ore imported by steel mills across China reached about 117.57 million tons this week, an increase of 470,200 tons from the previous month. Of course it is always possible that the price increase could simply and perhaps only be related to seasonal speculation itself.
Overall since 2015, China’s iron ore imports from Australia and Brazil have accounted for nearly 80 percent of all imports, of which imports from Australia have exceeded 60 percent. Bilateral relations have soured again recently due to Australia’s attitude toward China, which has caused disruption for trade activities. Iron ore exports are still among the few remaining products that are still in high demand in China, partly due to the needs of the domestic construction sector. However, the expectation is that import proportion from Australia in 2022 is likely to drop below 60 percent, having been 61.6 percent in 2021 and 62.5 percent in 2020. We also hear a lot about the change in policy and the potential domestic supply of iron ore in China, not sure however if all this is something that will really re-shape the market dynamics in the future.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 09 November 21
ASIA-PACIFIC IS HOME TO SOME OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST CARBON-EMITTERS - 2 CHARTS SHOW ITS RELIANCE ON COAL - CNBC
Asia-Pacific is home to some of the world’s largest carbon emitters — and experts say much of global efforts to fight climate change de ...
Tuesday, 09 November 21
CHINA DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS MULTI-YEAR PEAK, PRICES EXPECTED TO FALL - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output hit 11.93 million tonnes last week, a multi-year high as more capacity returned to operation, the state planner sai ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
CHINA'S COAL MARKET SEES SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner has declared initial success in its efforts to ensure coal supply and stabilize prices, saying that daily coal o ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
CHINA THERMAL COAL PRICES RISE AFTER FALLING FOR 10 DAYS - REUTERS
China thermal coal futures rebounded on Wednesday after falling for 10 days on an expected jump in fuel demand to meet heating needs amid forecasts ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
FASTER DECARBONISATION: BACK TO BASICS FOR THE MINING INDUSTRY? - WOOD MACKENZIE
To the uninitiated, rugby is a technical and complicated game. As young schoolboys it was all a wee bit confusing and we invariably ended up on the ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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