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Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China’s stronger-than-expected steel production, combined with an aggressive restocking of inventory levels and the country’s ports had driven iron ore prices well above expectations.
Iron ore stocks have also spiked as analysts upgrade their price forecasts for the commodity on the back of another unexpected recovery. The record prices of last May tumbled unexpectedly fast to under $US100 a tonne, and currently iron ore is taking the pundits again by surprise with a new run that now has it back near $US150/t. The sentiment is apparently still driven by signals about increased infrastructure spending in China and upgraded price forecasts. Nevertheless, and apart from the price of the commodity itself, it is very important that we still see the good fundamentals and dynamics there, which in any case support our overall optimism and hopes that better and more stable freight rates for Capes must be around the corner.
Looking at Australian iron ore exports to China, it is positive to see they remained robust last month despite the backdrop of rising market prices due to multiple factors including weather disruption and labor “shortage” concerns. Industry analysts said the proportion of Australian iron ore in China’s total iron ore imports may be reduced to below 60 percent in 2022 for the first time since 2015, especially as China is still diversifying its sources of supplies and deepening industry upgrading while pursuing low-carbon targets at the same time.
The price of iron ore was also reflected in the rising imports in China in recent weeks, and perhaps it is more important to keep an eye on inventory levels as well. According to data from industry sources, the total inventory of iron ore imported by steel mills across China reached about 117.57 million tons this week, an increase of 470,200 tons from the previous month. Of course it is always possible that the price increase could simply and perhaps only be related to seasonal speculation itself.
Overall since 2015, China’s iron ore imports from Australia and Brazil have accounted for nearly 80 percent of all imports, of which imports from Australia have exceeded 60 percent. Bilateral relations have soured again recently due to Australia’s attitude toward China, which has caused disruption for trade activities. Iron ore exports are still among the few remaining products that are still in high demand in China, partly due to the needs of the domestic construction sector. However, the expectation is that import proportion from Australia in 2022 is likely to drop below 60 percent, having been 61.6 percent in 2021 and 62.5 percent in 2020. We also hear a lot about the change in policy and the potential domestic supply of iron ore in China, not sure however if all this is something that will really re-shape the market dynamics in the future.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 16 November 21
CHINA'S MONTHLY COAL OUTPUT RISES TO HIGHEST SINCE MARCH 2015 - REUTERS
China’s October coal output rose to the highest since at least March 2015, after Beijing approved a raft of coal mine expansions to tame reco ...
Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Dre ...
Friday, 12 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
Friday, 12 November 21
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE TOPS $215 A TON; THE HIGHEST COAL PRICE IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference in a steep climb for most of second half of 2021 as it reached a pinnacle of $215.01 in November 2021 ...
Thursday, 11 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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