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Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China’s stronger-than-expected steel production, combined with an aggressive restocking of inventory levels and the country’s ports had driven iron ore prices well above expectations.
Iron ore stocks have also spiked as analysts upgrade their price forecasts for the commodity on the back of another unexpected recovery. The record prices of last May tumbled unexpectedly fast to under $US100 a tonne, and currently iron ore is taking the pundits again by surprise with a new run that now has it back near $US150/t. The sentiment is apparently still driven by signals about increased infrastructure spending in China and upgraded price forecasts. Nevertheless, and apart from the price of the commodity itself, it is very important that we still see the good fundamentals and dynamics there, which in any case support our overall optimism and hopes that better and more stable freight rates for Capes must be around the corner.
Looking at Australian iron ore exports to China, it is positive to see they remained robust last month despite the backdrop of rising market prices due to multiple factors including weather disruption and labor “shortage” concerns. Industry analysts said the proportion of Australian iron ore in China’s total iron ore imports may be reduced to below 60 percent in 2022 for the first time since 2015, especially as China is still diversifying its sources of supplies and deepening industry upgrading while pursuing low-carbon targets at the same time.
The price of iron ore was also reflected in the rising imports in China in recent weeks, and perhaps it is more important to keep an eye on inventory levels as well. According to data from industry sources, the total inventory of iron ore imported by steel mills across China reached about 117.57 million tons this week, an increase of 470,200 tons from the previous month. Of course it is always possible that the price increase could simply and perhaps only be related to seasonal speculation itself.
Overall since 2015, China’s iron ore imports from Australia and Brazil have accounted for nearly 80 percent of all imports, of which imports from Australia have exceeded 60 percent. Bilateral relations have soured again recently due to Australia’s attitude toward China, which has caused disruption for trade activities. Iron ore exports are still among the few remaining products that are still in high demand in China, partly due to the needs of the domestic construction sector. However, the expectation is that import proportion from Australia in 2022 is likely to drop below 60 percent, having been 61.6 percent in 2021 and 62.5 percent in 2020. We also hear a lot about the change in policy and the potential domestic supply of iron ore in China, not sure however if all this is something that will really re-shape the market dynamics in the future.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 November 21
PRICE OF CHINA’S COAL FUTURE DROPS BY 60% AS NATIONWIDE DAILY OUTPUT REACHES OVER 12 MILLION TONS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s daily coal output has now stabilized after reaching over 12 million tons and the price of coal futures has declined to 800 yuan ($125 ...
Friday, 19 November 21
CHINA: COAL SUPPLIES TO STABILIZE FOR COMING COLD SEASON
China is capable of ensuring stable coal supplies this winter and next spring with the increase in coal production and the rising stockpiles at pow ...
Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
EARNINGS RECOVERY IN INDONESIAN COAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH 2021, BUT SLOW IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
The recovery in the operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors is likely to slow in 2022, but coal prices s ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL USE FOR POWER GENERATION SET TO RISE 3% - REUTERS
Indonesia’s coal consumption for power generation is likely to rise by 3.1% next year compared to 2021, the head of the country’s state ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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