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Saturday, 16 October 21
DESPITE HIGHER COAL PRICES, U.S. COAL RECOVERY LOOKS WEAK BY MOST MEASURES - IEEFA
 U.S. coal sector is locked into a long-term sectoral decline
Coal prices have surged to the highest level in years in the U.S., and have soared in international markets. These high prices should significantly boost revenues and profits at coal mining companies—a remarkable turnaround from just a year ago, when the world’s pandemic-induced economic swoon sent export prices and demand tumbling.
Yet by most measures—including coal production, consumption for electric power, mining jobs and coming coal-plant retirements—the sector will barely rebound to 2019 levels, a far more telling comparison than to 2020, the worst year for U.S. coal in decades.
U.S. coal production
Take U.S. coal production, the broadest measure of the industry’s condition. This year’s output is expected to be 588 million tons, up 10% from 2020’s 535 million tons, according to October’s Short-Term Energy Outlook from the Energy Information Administration. That seems like a decent rebound, but it’s actually 118 million tons lower than in 2019, and, other than 2020, would be the lowest since 1971.
Coal use for electric power
Coal use for electric power is up over last year, too. The EIA’s latest outlook expects an 84-million-ton, or 19%, increase, to 521 million tons, compared with the 437 million tons used in 2020. Once again, this appears to be a substantial recovery—except that it’s lower than 2019’s 539 million tons. This is significant because more than 90% of the coal consumed in the U.S. is used to generate electricity.
This poor recovery in coal use looks even worse considering the price of natural gas rose 83% from $2.47 per thousand cubic feet in the third quarter of 2019 to $4.53 in the third quarter of this year. And, as IEEFA has noted about the energy transition in U.S. electricity markets, coal and gas together have not gained market share, and are instead continuing to lose ground to renewables. This is a trend that will continue for the foreseeable future, given the ongoing construction boom in utility-scale solar and wind. If anything, high prices for coal and gas, if sustained, are likely to cause the switch to renewables to accelerate.
Coal’s domestic market continues to shrink, too. More than 80GW of coal-plant retirements—more than one-third of the current operating capacity—are already scheduled to be retired by the end of 2030. IEEFA estimates these units used 166 million tons of coal in 2019, which would cut demand to about 375 million tons by the end of the decade, and this does not account for any new retirement announcements that could be made. On top of this, the remaining coal plants are likely to run less and less. EIA data shows the capacity factor for coal plants (a measure of how much of their generating potential is actually used) fell from 62.8% in 2011 to just 40.2% in 2020. IEEFA estimates that even a modest decline in capacity factors at the plants expected to operate after 2030 could result in a further loss of more than 80 million tons, bringing the total drop in coal demand from the U.S. power sector to about 250 million tons. In other words, coal’s largest U.S. market could shrink as much as 50% in just nine years.
U.S. coal mining jobs continue to decline
Another sign that coal mining isn’t recovering is the scale and timing of job losses. Nearly 24,000 jobs have been cut—a 29% decline—since 2019, when an average of 81,478 people were working for either coal-mine operators or contractors. This includes a loss of more than 6,100 jobs between 2020 and the first half of 2021, according to the latest figures from the Mine Safety and Health Administration, leaving just 57,497 workers in coal mining. That’s just half the number employed as recently as 2014.
Exports
With surging prices for coal in international markets—a complete turnaround from a year ago—coal exports should be a bright spot for American producers. No doubt for the companies that are exporting, there will be a significant boost to their bottom lines, because volumes are set to grow by 34% this year compared with 2020, to 92.6 million tons. Yet even here, this only returns exports to the 2019 level of 93.8 million tons, and the EIA outlook sees almost no further growth in 2022, when it expects 94.8 million tons to be sold abroad.
It is not surprising that coal has staged at least some comeback over 2020—by many measures the worst year for the industry in decades. What is surprising is that the rebound has fallen short of even 2019 in the critical measures of production, consumption by the power sector and jobs. This year’s high coal prices are likely to improve the weak finances at many mining companies, at least temporarily, but they won’t change the sector’s long-term decline. If anything, the high cost of coal is making the economics of switching to lower-cost renewables and storage even more compelling, and could result in utilities and other power producers accelerating their shift away from using coal.
By Seth Feaster
Data Analyst
IEEFA Energy
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Friday, 22 October 21
CHINA WANTS TO COOL COAL PRICES. SIMILAR MOVES FOR METALS, CRUDE FAILED - REUTERS
China’s latest attempt to lower runaway commodity prices, this time for thermal coal, is likely to follow a familiar pattern of initial succe ...
Friday, 22 October 21
HARD COAL REMAINS AN IMPORTANT FACTOR FOR SECURITY OF SUPPLY - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
- Hard coal remains an important factor for security of supply
- Increase of around 35% in hard-coal-fired power generation in the first three ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S COAL SHORTAGE TO EASE IN COMING MONTHS, INDUSTRY BODY SAYS - REUTERS
China’s coal shortage will likely ease in coming months, with domestic production and imports already showing signs of picking up, a coal ind ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT DROPS IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output dropped 0.9 percent year on year to 330 million tonnes last month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
OVER-RELIANCE ON COAL IN OUR POWER MIX HURTING INDIA - LIVEMINT
In spite of the renewables push, coal still accounts for about 50% of India’s installed power capacity. That means a simultaneous demand and ...
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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