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Saturday, 16 October 21
DESPITE HIGHER COAL PRICES, U.S. COAL RECOVERY LOOKS WEAK BY MOST MEASURES - IEEFA
 U.S. coal sector is locked into a long-term sectoral decline
Coal prices have surged to the highest level in years in the U.S., and have soared in international markets. These high prices should significantly boost revenues and profits at coal mining companies—a remarkable turnaround from just a year ago, when the world’s pandemic-induced economic swoon sent export prices and demand tumbling.
Yet by most measures—including coal production, consumption for electric power, mining jobs and coming coal-plant retirements—the sector will barely rebound to 2019 levels, a far more telling comparison than to 2020, the worst year for U.S. coal in decades.
U.S. coal production
Take U.S. coal production, the broadest measure of the industry’s condition. This year’s output is expected to be 588 million tons, up 10% from 2020’s 535 million tons, according to October’s Short-Term Energy Outlook from the Energy Information Administration. That seems like a decent rebound, but it’s actually 118 million tons lower than in 2019, and, other than 2020, would be the lowest since 1971.
Coal use for electric power
Coal use for electric power is up over last year, too. The EIA’s latest outlook expects an 84-million-ton, or 19%, increase, to 521 million tons, compared with the 437 million tons used in 2020. Once again, this appears to be a substantial recovery—except that it’s lower than 2019’s 539 million tons. This is significant because more than 90% of the coal consumed in the U.S. is used to generate electricity.
This poor recovery in coal use looks even worse considering the price of natural gas rose 83% from $2.47 per thousand cubic feet in the third quarter of 2019 to $4.53 in the third quarter of this year. And, as IEEFA has noted about the energy transition in U.S. electricity markets, coal and gas together have not gained market share, and are instead continuing to lose ground to renewables. This is a trend that will continue for the foreseeable future, given the ongoing construction boom in utility-scale solar and wind. If anything, high prices for coal and gas, if sustained, are likely to cause the switch to renewables to accelerate.
Coal’s domestic market continues to shrink, too. More than 80GW of coal-plant retirements—more than one-third of the current operating capacity—are already scheduled to be retired by the end of 2030. IEEFA estimates these units used 166 million tons of coal in 2019, which would cut demand to about 375 million tons by the end of the decade, and this does not account for any new retirement announcements that could be made. On top of this, the remaining coal plants are likely to run less and less. EIA data shows the capacity factor for coal plants (a measure of how much of their generating potential is actually used) fell from 62.8% in 2011 to just 40.2% in 2020. IEEFA estimates that even a modest decline in capacity factors at the plants expected to operate after 2030 could result in a further loss of more than 80 million tons, bringing the total drop in coal demand from the U.S. power sector to about 250 million tons. In other words, coal’s largest U.S. market could shrink as much as 50% in just nine years.
U.S. coal mining jobs continue to decline
Another sign that coal mining isn’t recovering is the scale and timing of job losses. Nearly 24,000 jobs have been cut—a 29% decline—since 2019, when an average of 81,478 people were working for either coal-mine operators or contractors. This includes a loss of more than 6,100 jobs between 2020 and the first half of 2021, according to the latest figures from the Mine Safety and Health Administration, leaving just 57,497 workers in coal mining. That’s just half the number employed as recently as 2014.
Exports
With surging prices for coal in international markets—a complete turnaround from a year ago—coal exports should be a bright spot for American producers. No doubt for the companies that are exporting, there will be a significant boost to their bottom lines, because volumes are set to grow by 34% this year compared with 2020, to 92.6 million tons. Yet even here, this only returns exports to the 2019 level of 93.8 million tons, and the EIA outlook sees almost no further growth in 2022, when it expects 94.8 million tons to be sold abroad.
It is not surprising that coal has staged at least some comeback over 2020—by many measures the worst year for the industry in decades. What is surprising is that the rebound has fallen short of even 2019 in the critical measures of production, consumption by the power sector and jobs. This year’s high coal prices are likely to improve the weak finances at many mining companies, at least temporarily, but they won’t change the sector’s long-term decline. If anything, the high cost of coal is making the economics of switching to lower-cost renewables and storage even more compelling, and could result in utilities and other power producers accelerating their shift away from using coal.
By Seth Feaster
Data Analyst
IEEFA Energy
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Saturday, 16 October 21
COAL IS 'KING' AS GAS PRICES SOAR, TOTAL CEO SAYS - AND IT’S BACKFIRING ON CLEANER ENERGY GOALS - CNBC
Surging natural gas prices have led to a jump in coal use, with plants in Europe and Asia firing back up as temperatures decline and the world grap ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
VIETNAM'S COAL-FIRED POWER MAY DOUBLE BY 2030 UNDER DRAFT ENERGY PLAN - REUTERS
Vietnam may double the amount of coal-fired electric generation it installs by 2030 under a draft power development plan submitted to the prime min ...
Friday, 15 October 21
AUSTRALIA'S WHITEHAVEN EXPECTS TO BE DEBT-FREE NEXT YEAR AS COAL PRICES SOAR - REUTERS
Australia’s Whitehaven Coal WHC.AX said on Thursday it expects to be debt-free by early 2022, as thermal coal prices surge to record highs on ...
Friday, 15 October 21
WINTER CHILL KEEPS CHINA'S COAL PRICES HIGH, POWER CRUNCH STOKES INFLATION - REUTERS
China coal prices held near record highs on Thursday as cold weather swept into the country’s north and power plants stocked up on the fuel t ...
Friday, 15 October 21
GLOBAL STEEL DEMAND GROWTH DOWNGRADED FOR 2021 DUE TO CHINA - WORLD STEEL ASSOCIATION
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released an update of its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that ste ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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