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Saturday, 16 October 21
DESPITE HIGHER COAL PRICES, U.S. COAL RECOVERY LOOKS WEAK BY MOST MEASURES - IEEFA
 U.S. coal sector is locked into a long-term sectoral decline
Coal prices have surged to the highest level in years in the U.S., and have soared in international markets. These high prices should significantly boost revenues and profits at coal mining companies—a remarkable turnaround from just a year ago, when the world’s pandemic-induced economic swoon sent export prices and demand tumbling.
Yet by most measures—including coal production, consumption for electric power, mining jobs and coming coal-plant retirements—the sector will barely rebound to 2019 levels, a far more telling comparison than to 2020, the worst year for U.S. coal in decades.
U.S. coal production
Take U.S. coal production, the broadest measure of the industry’s condition. This year’s output is expected to be 588 million tons, up 10% from 2020’s 535 million tons, according to October’s Short-Term Energy Outlook from the Energy Information Administration. That seems like a decent rebound, but it’s actually 118 million tons lower than in 2019, and, other than 2020, would be the lowest since 1971.
Coal use for electric power
Coal use for electric power is up over last year, too. The EIA’s latest outlook expects an 84-million-ton, or 19%, increase, to 521 million tons, compared with the 437 million tons used in 2020. Once again, this appears to be a substantial recovery—except that it’s lower than 2019’s 539 million tons. This is significant because more than 90% of the coal consumed in the U.S. is used to generate electricity.
This poor recovery in coal use looks even worse considering the price of natural gas rose 83% from $2.47 per thousand cubic feet in the third quarter of 2019 to $4.53 in the third quarter of this year. And, as IEEFA has noted about the energy transition in U.S. electricity markets, coal and gas together have not gained market share, and are instead continuing to lose ground to renewables. This is a trend that will continue for the foreseeable future, given the ongoing construction boom in utility-scale solar and wind. If anything, high prices for coal and gas, if sustained, are likely to cause the switch to renewables to accelerate.
Coal’s domestic market continues to shrink, too. More than 80GW of coal-plant retirements—more than one-third of the current operating capacity—are already scheduled to be retired by the end of 2030. IEEFA estimates these units used 166 million tons of coal in 2019, which would cut demand to about 375 million tons by the end of the decade, and this does not account for any new retirement announcements that could be made. On top of this, the remaining coal plants are likely to run less and less. EIA data shows the capacity factor for coal plants (a measure of how much of their generating potential is actually used) fell from 62.8% in 2011 to just 40.2% in 2020. IEEFA estimates that even a modest decline in capacity factors at the plants expected to operate after 2030 could result in a further loss of more than 80 million tons, bringing the total drop in coal demand from the U.S. power sector to about 250 million tons. In other words, coal’s largest U.S. market could shrink as much as 50% in just nine years.
U.S. coal mining jobs continue to decline
Another sign that coal mining isn’t recovering is the scale and timing of job losses. Nearly 24,000 jobs have been cut—a 29% decline—since 2019, when an average of 81,478 people were working for either coal-mine operators or contractors. This includes a loss of more than 6,100 jobs between 2020 and the first half of 2021, according to the latest figures from the Mine Safety and Health Administration, leaving just 57,497 workers in coal mining. That’s just half the number employed as recently as 2014.
Exports
With surging prices for coal in international markets—a complete turnaround from a year ago—coal exports should be a bright spot for American producers. No doubt for the companies that are exporting, there will be a significant boost to their bottom lines, because volumes are set to grow by 34% this year compared with 2020, to 92.6 million tons. Yet even here, this only returns exports to the 2019 level of 93.8 million tons, and the EIA outlook sees almost no further growth in 2022, when it expects 94.8 million tons to be sold abroad.
It is not surprising that coal has staged at least some comeback over 2020—by many measures the worst year for the industry in decades. What is surprising is that the rebound has fallen short of even 2019 in the critical measures of production, consumption by the power sector and jobs. This year’s high coal prices are likely to improve the weak finances at many mining companies, at least temporarily, but they won’t change the sector’s long-term decline. If anything, the high cost of coal is making the economics of switching to lower-cost renewables and storage even more compelling, and could result in utilities and other power producers accelerating their shift away from using coal.
By Seth Feaster
Data Analyst
IEEFA Energy
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Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA COAL HITS RECORD HIGH AMID TIGHT SUPPLIES - REUTERS
China coal prices hit a record high on Tuesday buoyed by a widening power crunch and cold weather despite Beijing’s efforts to bolster supply ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
IMO 2020, Ballast Water Treatment regulations, Green Recycling, GHG emissions, EEXI, CII, ETS, Fit for 55, Carbon price/levy, the Poseidon Principl ...
Tuesday, 19 October 21
SPONGE IRON SECTOR MIGHT REPORT NEGATIVE GROWTH DUE TO COAL CRISIS: SIMA - PTI
The domestic sponge iron industry might report a negative growth in the ongoing December quarter “if the shortage of coal is allowed to conti ...
Tuesday, 19 October 21
COAL INDIA, THE FALL GUY FOR POWER CRISIS - INDIA EXPRESS
The post-Covid economic recovery has led to a major increase in the demand for power, both in India and globally. In India, coal-based power plants ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
SOLAR INSTALLATION SURGE PUTS INDIA ON TRACK TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER AS EARLY AS 2024 - IEEFA
Recent increase in solar power installations could push coal to peak sooner than expected
If India keeps installing solar capacity a ...
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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