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Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
 A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional individual markets. While previous years’ reports have mentioned “must do better” or “extra classes needed”, even the toughest of examiners would congratulate (tankers aside!?) shipping’s economic performance during the many continued challenges of the pandemic.
Grading the Segments
Our cross-sector ClarkSea Index averaged an encouraging $20,717/day in 1H, up 27% y-o-y and 64% above trend (since 2009, see graph). This also represents the strongest six months for the index since the “heady” days of 2008. The star performer has been the “red hot” container market which has seen record highs, while bulkers also deserve a merit award with their best half year since 2010. LPG earnings were down on 2020 averages but still 21% above trend while LNG, despite some ups and downs, were close to trend. Although there are mitigating circumstances (oil trade is still down 10% on pre-Covid levels and floating storage has “unwound”) tanker earnings averaged their lowest half year period for 30+ years and will be hoping for improvements after the summer. Car carriers have picked up nicely to move 5% above trend (impressive as rates touched all-time lows last year) while Ro-Ro freight has also shown resilience. Offshore oil and gas has improved but still remained ~30% below trend (for a North Sea PSV)
Demand Improvements…
After “losing” ~500mt of trade in 2020, we now estimate that volumes have returned to pre-pandemic levels (in May-20 trade was down 12%). Again a special commendation to containers, with a combination of pent up demand, shifts in consumer spending and economic recovery supporting projected trade of 207m TEU this year, up 6% on 2020. Balancing economic recovery, stimulus, further Covid19 waves and uncertainty over the duration of “supportive” disruption, we project over 12bt of total seaborne trade in 2021.
Supply “Favourable”?
In our previous review, we gave shipping supply an “A for effort”, reflecting on an orderbook under 10% of the fleet (it’s still 8%). Fleet growth of 1.7% in 1H (growth of 36m dwt) remains below trend, although newbuild ordering (24m CGT, $55bn) has picked up to its busiest six months since 2014, surpassing full year 2020 orders (although steel prices and currency movements may make similar order intake in 2H more difficult for yards). However, the stellar S&P market achieved “top marks” with all time record transactions (>85m dwt, up 131% on 1H20 and 31% on 2H, and more than double the long term trend!). At this run rate, ~8% of the fleet will change ownership in 2021. We reported 12m dwt of demo, up 14% on 1H-20 but down 12% on 2H-20.
Those Extra Classes …..
With recovering activity, we estimate that shipping’s emissions have edged up slightly to ~840mt and 2.4% of global CO2. Given the “amplified” focus on energy transition and the developments at IMO (and pending announcements from the EU), let’s hope those extra “classes” on “green and tech” we recommended a few years ago have come in handy (over 25% of orders in 1H were for alternative fuelled vessels). Our continued best wishes from Clarksons Research.
Source: Clarksons Research
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Saturday, 16 October 21
DESPITE HIGHER COAL PRICES, U.S. COAL RECOVERY LOOKS WEAK BY MOST MEASURES - IEEFA
U.S. coal sector is locked into a long-term sectoral decline
Coal prices have surged to the highest level in years in the U.S., and have soare ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
COAL IS 'KING' AS GAS PRICES SOAR, TOTAL CEO SAYS - AND IT’S BACKFIRING ON CLEANER ENERGY GOALS - CNBC
Surging natural gas prices have led to a jump in coal use, with plants in Europe and Asia firing back up as temperatures decline and the world grap ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
VIETNAM'S COAL-FIRED POWER MAY DOUBLE BY 2030 UNDER DRAFT ENERGY PLAN - REUTERS
Vietnam may double the amount of coal-fired electric generation it installs by 2030 under a draft power development plan submitted to the prime min ...
Friday, 15 October 21
AUSTRALIA'S WHITEHAVEN EXPECTS TO BE DEBT-FREE NEXT YEAR AS COAL PRICES SOAR - REUTERS
Australia’s Whitehaven Coal WHC.AX said on Thursday it expects to be debt-free by early 2022, as thermal coal prices surge to record highs on ...
Friday, 15 October 21
WINTER CHILL KEEPS CHINA'S COAL PRICES HIGH, POWER CRUNCH STOKES INFLATION - REUTERS
China coal prices held near record highs on Thursday as cold weather swept into the country’s north and power plants stocked up on the fuel t ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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