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Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
 A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional individual markets. While previous years’ reports have mentioned “must do better” or “extra classes needed”, even the toughest of examiners would congratulate (tankers aside!?) shipping’s economic performance during the many continued challenges of the pandemic.
Grading the Segments
Our cross-sector ClarkSea Index averaged an encouraging $20,717/day in 1H, up 27% y-o-y and 64% above trend (since 2009, see graph). This also represents the strongest six months for the index since the “heady” days of 2008. The star performer has been the “red hot” container market which has seen record highs, while bulkers also deserve a merit award with their best half year since 2010. LPG earnings were down on 2020 averages but still 21% above trend while LNG, despite some ups and downs, were close to trend. Although there are mitigating circumstances (oil trade is still down 10% on pre-Covid levels and floating storage has “unwound”) tanker earnings averaged their lowest half year period for 30+ years and will be hoping for improvements after the summer. Car carriers have picked up nicely to move 5% above trend (impressive as rates touched all-time lows last year) while Ro-Ro freight has also shown resilience. Offshore oil and gas has improved but still remained ~30% below trend (for a North Sea PSV)
Demand Improvements…
After “losing” ~500mt of trade in 2020, we now estimate that volumes have returned to pre-pandemic levels (in May-20 trade was down 12%). Again a special commendation to containers, with a combination of pent up demand, shifts in consumer spending and economic recovery supporting projected trade of 207m TEU this year, up 6% on 2020. Balancing economic recovery, stimulus, further Covid19 waves and uncertainty over the duration of “supportive” disruption, we project over 12bt of total seaborne trade in 2021.
Supply “Favourable”?
In our previous review, we gave shipping supply an “A for effort”, reflecting on an orderbook under 10% of the fleet (it’s still 8%). Fleet growth of 1.7% in 1H (growth of 36m dwt) remains below trend, although newbuild ordering (24m CGT, $55bn) has picked up to its busiest six months since 2014, surpassing full year 2020 orders (although steel prices and currency movements may make similar order intake in 2H more difficult for yards). However, the stellar S&P market achieved “top marks” with all time record transactions (>85m dwt, up 131% on 1H20 and 31% on 2H, and more than double the long term trend!). At this run rate, ~8% of the fleet will change ownership in 2021. We reported 12m dwt of demo, up 14% on 1H-20 but down 12% on 2H-20.
Those Extra Classes …..
With recovering activity, we estimate that shipping’s emissions have edged up slightly to ~840mt and 2.4% of global CO2. Given the “amplified” focus on energy transition and the developments at IMO (and pending announcements from the EU), let’s hope those extra “classes” on “green and tech” we recommended a few years ago have come in handy (over 25% of orders in 1H were for alternative fuelled vessels). Our continued best wishes from Clarksons Research.
Source: Clarksons Research
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Friday, 22 October 21
CHINA WANTS TO COOL COAL PRICES. SIMILAR MOVES FOR METALS, CRUDE FAILED - REUTERS
China’s latest attempt to lower runaway commodity prices, this time for thermal coal, is likely to follow a familiar pattern of initial succe ...
Friday, 22 October 21
HARD COAL REMAINS AN IMPORTANT FACTOR FOR SECURITY OF SUPPLY - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
- Hard coal remains an important factor for security of supply
- Increase of around 35% in hard-coal-fired power generation in the first three ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S COAL SHORTAGE TO EASE IN COMING MONTHS, INDUSTRY BODY SAYS - REUTERS
China’s coal shortage will likely ease in coming months, with domestic production and imports already showing signs of picking up, a coal ind ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT DROPS IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output dropped 0.9 percent year on year to 330 million tonnes last month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
OVER-RELIANCE ON COAL IN OUR POWER MIX HURTING INDIA - LIVEMINT
In spite of the renewables push, coal still accounts for about 50% of India’s installed power capacity. That means a simultaneous demand and ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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