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Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
 A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional individual markets. While previous years’ reports have mentioned “must do better” or “extra classes needed”, even the toughest of examiners would congratulate (tankers aside!?) shipping’s economic performance during the many continued challenges of the pandemic.
Grading the Segments
Our cross-sector ClarkSea Index averaged an encouraging $20,717/day in 1H, up 27% y-o-y and 64% above trend (since 2009, see graph). This also represents the strongest six months for the index since the “heady” days of 2008. The star performer has been the “red hot” container market which has seen record highs, while bulkers also deserve a merit award with their best half year since 2010. LPG earnings were down on 2020 averages but still 21% above trend while LNG, despite some ups and downs, were close to trend. Although there are mitigating circumstances (oil trade is still down 10% on pre-Covid levels and floating storage has “unwound”) tanker earnings averaged their lowest half year period for 30+ years and will be hoping for improvements after the summer. Car carriers have picked up nicely to move 5% above trend (impressive as rates touched all-time lows last year) while Ro-Ro freight has also shown resilience. Offshore oil and gas has improved but still remained ~30% below trend (for a North Sea PSV)
Demand Improvements…
After “losing” ~500mt of trade in 2020, we now estimate that volumes have returned to pre-pandemic levels (in May-20 trade was down 12%). Again a special commendation to containers, with a combination of pent up demand, shifts in consumer spending and economic recovery supporting projected trade of 207m TEU this year, up 6% on 2020. Balancing economic recovery, stimulus, further Covid19 waves and uncertainty over the duration of “supportive” disruption, we project over 12bt of total seaborne trade in 2021.
Supply “Favourable”?
In our previous review, we gave shipping supply an “A for effort”, reflecting on an orderbook under 10% of the fleet (it’s still 8%). Fleet growth of 1.7% in 1H (growth of 36m dwt) remains below trend, although newbuild ordering (24m CGT, $55bn) has picked up to its busiest six months since 2014, surpassing full year 2020 orders (although steel prices and currency movements may make similar order intake in 2H more difficult for yards). However, the stellar S&P market achieved “top marks” with all time record transactions (>85m dwt, up 131% on 1H20 and 31% on 2H, and more than double the long term trend!). At this run rate, ~8% of the fleet will change ownership in 2021. We reported 12m dwt of demo, up 14% on 1H-20 but down 12% on 2H-20.
Those Extra Classes …..
With recovering activity, we estimate that shipping’s emissions have edged up slightly to ~840mt and 2.4% of global CO2. Given the “amplified” focus on energy transition and the developments at IMO (and pending announcements from the EU), let’s hope those extra “classes” on “green and tech” we recommended a few years ago have come in handy (over 25% of orders in 1H were for alternative fuelled vessels). Our continued best wishes from Clarksons Research.
Source: Clarksons Research
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Monday, 25 October 21
A QUESTION OF POSSESSION - THE BALTIC EXCHANGE
Possession and tangibility are closely related concepts long established under English law. Yet a change to these concepts is around the corner. Th ...
Monday, 25 October 21
CHINA VOWS TO SEVERELY PUNISH MARKET VIOLATIONS AMID LOW COAL FUTURES PRICES - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic coal futures had plunged for three consecutive trading days after the government vowed to crack down on soaring prices, and China’s ...
Monday, 25 October 21
FARMERS MAY JOIN THE COAL COMMODITY MARKET TO REDUCE RISKS - GLOBAL TIMES
A recent trip to by the Global Times to East China’s Shandong Province to get a glimpse of China’s coal supply chain revealed a surpris ...
Monday, 25 October 21
CHINA COAL PRICES MARK WORST WEEK SINCE MAY ON GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures plunged on Friday and turned in their worst week in five months, following Beijing’s strongest interventio ...
Friday, 22 October 21
THE BIG PICTURE: ENERGY MARKETS - BREAK WAVE ADVISORS
The shipping markets have been pulled further into wild markets of coal and other energy sources. Given how nebulous this sector is, it’s alw ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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