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Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
 A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional individual markets. While previous years’ reports have mentioned “must do better” or “extra classes needed”, even the toughest of examiners would congratulate (tankers aside!?) shipping’s economic performance during the many continued challenges of the pandemic.
Grading the Segments
Our cross-sector ClarkSea Index averaged an encouraging $20,717/day in 1H, up 27% y-o-y and 64% above trend (since 2009, see graph). This also represents the strongest six months for the index since the “heady” days of 2008. The star performer has been the “red hot” container market which has seen record highs, while bulkers also deserve a merit award with their best half year since 2010. LPG earnings were down on 2020 averages but still 21% above trend while LNG, despite some ups and downs, were close to trend. Although there are mitigating circumstances (oil trade is still down 10% on pre-Covid levels and floating storage has “unwound”) tanker earnings averaged their lowest half year period for 30+ years and will be hoping for improvements after the summer. Car carriers have picked up nicely to move 5% above trend (impressive as rates touched all-time lows last year) while Ro-Ro freight has also shown resilience. Offshore oil and gas has improved but still remained ~30% below trend (for a North Sea PSV)
Demand Improvements…
After “losing” ~500mt of trade in 2020, we now estimate that volumes have returned to pre-pandemic levels (in May-20 trade was down 12%). Again a special commendation to containers, with a combination of pent up demand, shifts in consumer spending and economic recovery supporting projected trade of 207m TEU this year, up 6% on 2020. Balancing economic recovery, stimulus, further Covid19 waves and uncertainty over the duration of “supportive” disruption, we project over 12bt of total seaborne trade in 2021.
Supply “Favourable”?
In our previous review, we gave shipping supply an “A for effort”, reflecting on an orderbook under 10% of the fleet (it’s still 8%). Fleet growth of 1.7% in 1H (growth of 36m dwt) remains below trend, although newbuild ordering (24m CGT, $55bn) has picked up to its busiest six months since 2014, surpassing full year 2020 orders (although steel prices and currency movements may make similar order intake in 2H more difficult for yards). However, the stellar S&P market achieved “top marks” with all time record transactions (>85m dwt, up 131% on 1H20 and 31% on 2H, and more than double the long term trend!). At this run rate, ~8% of the fleet will change ownership in 2021. We reported 12m dwt of demo, up 14% on 1H-20 but down 12% on 2H-20.
Those Extra Classes …..
With recovering activity, we estimate that shipping’s emissions have edged up slightly to ~840mt and 2.4% of global CO2. Given the “amplified” focus on energy transition and the developments at IMO (and pending announcements from the EU), let’s hope those extra “classes” on “green and tech” we recommended a few years ago have come in handy (over 25% of orders in 1H were for alternative fuelled vessels). Our continued best wishes from Clarksons Research.
Source: Clarksons Research
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Monday, 01 November 21
COAL PRICES HAVE FURTHER ROOM TO DROP: TOP ECONOMIC PLANNER - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner said coal prices have further room to drop on Friday, as the most traded coal futures dropped to below 1,000 yua ...
Saturday, 30 October 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICES SEE BIGGEST WEEKLY FALL IN MORE THAN 5 YEARS - REUTERS
China’s coal futures prices saw their biggest fall in more than five years after the powerful state planner said there is still room to adjus ...
Saturday, 30 October 21
G-20 LEADERS PREPARE STATEMENT TO STOP FUNDING FOREIGN COAL PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Leaders of the Group of 20 wealthy economies are preparing to pledge to stop funding foreign coal-fired plants, but are still wrangling over climat ...
Friday, 29 October 21
APAC THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO REMAIN TIGHT AS WINTER LOOMS - FITCH RATINGS
APAC thermal coal prices have surged, hitting historically high levels. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal reached USD228/tonne in mid ...
Thursday, 28 October 21
CANADA BAN ON SHIPPING COAL WOULD EQUAL SCRAPPING AS MANY AS 3 MILLION CARS - IEEFA
Canada ban on shipping coal would equal scrapping as many as 3 million cars
Change in Canadian policy could have major implications ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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