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Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
 A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional individual markets. While previous years’ reports have mentioned “must do better” or “extra classes needed”, even the toughest of examiners would congratulate (tankers aside!?) shipping’s economic performance during the many continued challenges of the pandemic.
Grading the Segments
Our cross-sector ClarkSea Index averaged an encouraging $20,717/day in 1H, up 27% y-o-y and 64% above trend (since 2009, see graph). This also represents the strongest six months for the index since the “heady” days of 2008. The star performer has been the “red hot” container market which has seen record highs, while bulkers also deserve a merit award with their best half year since 2010. LPG earnings were down on 2020 averages but still 21% above trend while LNG, despite some ups and downs, were close to trend. Although there are mitigating circumstances (oil trade is still down 10% on pre-Covid levels and floating storage has “unwound”) tanker earnings averaged their lowest half year period for 30+ years and will be hoping for improvements after the summer. Car carriers have picked up nicely to move 5% above trend (impressive as rates touched all-time lows last year) while Ro-Ro freight has also shown resilience. Offshore oil and gas has improved but still remained ~30% below trend (for a North Sea PSV)
Demand Improvements…
After “losing” ~500mt of trade in 2020, we now estimate that volumes have returned to pre-pandemic levels (in May-20 trade was down 12%). Again a special commendation to containers, with a combination of pent up demand, shifts in consumer spending and economic recovery supporting projected trade of 207m TEU this year, up 6% on 2020. Balancing economic recovery, stimulus, further Covid19 waves and uncertainty over the duration of “supportive” disruption, we project over 12bt of total seaborne trade in 2021.
Supply “Favourable”?
In our previous review, we gave shipping supply an “A for effort”, reflecting on an orderbook under 10% of the fleet (it’s still 8%). Fleet growth of 1.7% in 1H (growth of 36m dwt) remains below trend, although newbuild ordering (24m CGT, $55bn) has picked up to its busiest six months since 2014, surpassing full year 2020 orders (although steel prices and currency movements may make similar order intake in 2H more difficult for yards). However, the stellar S&P market achieved “top marks” with all time record transactions (>85m dwt, up 131% on 1H20 and 31% on 2H, and more than double the long term trend!). At this run rate, ~8% of the fleet will change ownership in 2021. We reported 12m dwt of demo, up 14% on 1H-20 but down 12% on 2H-20.
Those Extra Classes …..
With recovering activity, we estimate that shipping’s emissions have edged up slightly to ~840mt and 2.4% of global CO2. Given the “amplified” focus on energy transition and the developments at IMO (and pending announcements from the EU), let’s hope those extra “classes” on “green and tech” we recommended a few years ago have come in handy (over 25% of orders in 1H were for alternative fuelled vessels). Our continued best wishes from Clarksons Research.
Source: Clarksons Research
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Wednesday, 13 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following up on our insight on May 2021, where we discussed about the Capesize market outlook for the second half of the year, we are pleased to se ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
FBX INDEX: THE IMPOSSIBILITY OF SHORT-TERM FORECASTING - LARS JENSEN
Will freight rates on Asia-Europe or the Transpacific reach 40.000 USD/FFE in the run-up prior to Chinese New Year 2022? Or will they start droppin ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA FLOODS: COAL PRICE HITS FRESH HIGH AS MINES SHUT - BBC
The price of coal used in China’s power plants has surged to a new record high as another of the country’s key mining regions is hit by ...
Tuesday, 12 October 21
BUMA SIGNS CONDITIONAL AGREEMENT FOR AUSTRALIAN ASSET ACQUISITION
PT Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, through its newly incorporated Australian subsidiary, BUMA International Pty ...
Tuesday, 12 October 21
INDONESIA'S COAL-BASED POWER PLANTS ARE SUBJECT TO CARBON TAX NEXT YEAR, ELECTRICITY COSTS COULD RISE! - CNBC
The Indonesian government is planning plans to implement a carbon tax of IDR 30 per kilogram (kg) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) or equivalent ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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