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Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
 A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional individual markets. While previous years’ reports have mentioned “must do better” or “extra classes needed”, even the toughest of examiners would congratulate (tankers aside!?) shipping’s economic performance during the many continued challenges of the pandemic.
Grading the Segments
Our cross-sector ClarkSea Index averaged an encouraging $20,717/day in 1H, up 27% y-o-y and 64% above trend (since 2009, see graph). This also represents the strongest six months for the index since the “heady” days of 2008. The star performer has been the “red hot” container market which has seen record highs, while bulkers also deserve a merit award with their best half year since 2010. LPG earnings were down on 2020 averages but still 21% above trend while LNG, despite some ups and downs, were close to trend. Although there are mitigating circumstances (oil trade is still down 10% on pre-Covid levels and floating storage has “unwound”) tanker earnings averaged their lowest half year period for 30+ years and will be hoping for improvements after the summer. Car carriers have picked up nicely to move 5% above trend (impressive as rates touched all-time lows last year) while Ro-Ro freight has also shown resilience. Offshore oil and gas has improved but still remained ~30% below trend (for a North Sea PSV)
Demand Improvements…
After “losing” ~500mt of trade in 2020, we now estimate that volumes have returned to pre-pandemic levels (in May-20 trade was down 12%). Again a special commendation to containers, with a combination of pent up demand, shifts in consumer spending and economic recovery supporting projected trade of 207m TEU this year, up 6% on 2020. Balancing economic recovery, stimulus, further Covid19 waves and uncertainty over the duration of “supportive” disruption, we project over 12bt of total seaborne trade in 2021.
Supply “Favourable”?
In our previous review, we gave shipping supply an “A for effort”, reflecting on an orderbook under 10% of the fleet (it’s still 8%). Fleet growth of 1.7% in 1H (growth of 36m dwt) remains below trend, although newbuild ordering (24m CGT, $55bn) has picked up to its busiest six months since 2014, surpassing full year 2020 orders (although steel prices and currency movements may make similar order intake in 2H more difficult for yards). However, the stellar S&P market achieved “top marks” with all time record transactions (>85m dwt, up 131% on 1H20 and 31% on 2H, and more than double the long term trend!). At this run rate, ~8% of the fleet will change ownership in 2021. We reported 12m dwt of demo, up 14% on 1H-20 but down 12% on 2H-20.
Those Extra Classes …..
With recovering activity, we estimate that shipping’s emissions have edged up slightly to ~840mt and 2.4% of global CO2. Given the “amplified” focus on energy transition and the developments at IMO (and pending announcements from the EU), let’s hope those extra “classes” on “green and tech” we recommended a few years ago have come in handy (over 25% of orders in 1H were for alternative fuelled vessels). Our continued best wishes from Clarksons Research.
Source: Clarksons Research
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Friday, 15 October 21
GLOBAL STEEL DEMAND GROWTH DOWNGRADED FOR 2021 DUE TO CHINA - WORLD STEEL ASSOCIATION
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released an update of its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that ste ...
Thursday, 14 October 21
SPIKING COAL PRICES: DON’T BLAME THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Volatility highlights urgency for renewables-based energy solutions
“Energy crisis.” The phrase evokes nearly-forgotten ...
Thursday, 14 October 21
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 588 MMST IN 2021, UP 53 MMST YOY
U.S. coal production in EIA's forecasts totals 588 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 53 MMst more than in 2020.
According ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
COAL PRICES ARE ROARING BACK AMID A GLOBAL ENERGY CRUNCH - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Soaring coal prices have placed Australia’s mining and energy exports on track to reach a record $349 billion this year evenas the value of t ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA ISN'T THE ONLY HUGE ASIAN ECONOMY WITH A COAL SHORTAGE NOW - CNBC
China is not the only Asian giant grappling with an energy crunch — India is also teetering on the edge of a power crisis.
Mos ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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