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Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
 A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional individual markets. While previous years’ reports have mentioned “must do better” or “extra classes needed”, even the toughest of examiners would congratulate (tankers aside!?) shipping’s economic performance during the many continued challenges of the pandemic.
Grading the Segments
Our cross-sector ClarkSea Index averaged an encouraging $20,717/day in 1H, up 27% y-o-y and 64% above trend (since 2009, see graph). This also represents the strongest six months for the index since the “heady” days of 2008. The star performer has been the “red hot” container market which has seen record highs, while bulkers also deserve a merit award with their best half year since 2010. LPG earnings were down on 2020 averages but still 21% above trend while LNG, despite some ups and downs, were close to trend. Although there are mitigating circumstances (oil trade is still down 10% on pre-Covid levels and floating storage has “unwound”) tanker earnings averaged their lowest half year period for 30+ years and will be hoping for improvements after the summer. Car carriers have picked up nicely to move 5% above trend (impressive as rates touched all-time lows last year) while Ro-Ro freight has also shown resilience. Offshore oil and gas has improved but still remained ~30% below trend (for a North Sea PSV)
Demand Improvements…
After “losing” ~500mt of trade in 2020, we now estimate that volumes have returned to pre-pandemic levels (in May-20 trade was down 12%). Again a special commendation to containers, with a combination of pent up demand, shifts in consumer spending and economic recovery supporting projected trade of 207m TEU this year, up 6% on 2020. Balancing economic recovery, stimulus, further Covid19 waves and uncertainty over the duration of “supportive” disruption, we project over 12bt of total seaborne trade in 2021.
Supply “Favourable”?
In our previous review, we gave shipping supply an “A for effort”, reflecting on an orderbook under 10% of the fleet (it’s still 8%). Fleet growth of 1.7% in 1H (growth of 36m dwt) remains below trend, although newbuild ordering (24m CGT, $55bn) has picked up to its busiest six months since 2014, surpassing full year 2020 orders (although steel prices and currency movements may make similar order intake in 2H more difficult for yards). However, the stellar S&P market achieved “top marks” with all time record transactions (>85m dwt, up 131% on 1H20 and 31% on 2H, and more than double the long term trend!). At this run rate, ~8% of the fleet will change ownership in 2021. We reported 12m dwt of demo, up 14% on 1H-20 but down 12% on 2H-20.
Those Extra Classes …..
With recovering activity, we estimate that shipping’s emissions have edged up slightly to ~840mt and 2.4% of global CO2. Given the “amplified” focus on energy transition and the developments at IMO (and pending announcements from the EU), let’s hope those extra “classes” on “green and tech” we recommended a few years ago have come in handy (over 25% of orders in 1H were for alternative fuelled vessels). Our continued best wishes from Clarksons Research.
Source: Clarksons Research
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Friday, 13 August 21
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO JAPAN DECLINED BY -26.3% YOY TO 11.9 MLN TONNES IN THE FIRST 7 MONTHS OF 2021; STILL THE SECOND LARGEST SOURCE FOR JAPAN’S COAL IMPORTS IS INDONESIA - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade. Total global loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-yea ...
Thursday, 12 August 21
ONLY 3 VLCCS SOLD FOR DEMOLITION IN 2021 AS SECONDHAND PRICES TEMPT - BIMCO
During the first seven months of 2021, only three actively trading Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) have been sold for demolition. The current mar ...
Wednesday, 11 August 21
U.S: EIA EXPECTS COAL EXPORTS TO TOTAL 90 MMST IN 2021, 30% INCREASE FROM 2020
Coal production in EIA's forecast totals 607 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, an increase of 13% over 2020.
EIA is also ...
Wednesday, 11 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Energy is at the core of the global climate dialogue as the climate challenge is essentially an energy challenge. Policy experts around the world a ...
Tuesday, 10 August 21
34 INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES TEMPORARILY BANNED FOR COAL EXPORTS
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has imposed sanctions in the form of a coal export ban for 34 coal companies as reported by CNB ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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