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Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
 A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional individual markets. While previous years’ reports have mentioned “must do better” or “extra classes needed”, even the toughest of examiners would congratulate (tankers aside!?) shipping’s economic performance during the many continued challenges of the pandemic.
Grading the Segments
Our cross-sector ClarkSea Index averaged an encouraging $20,717/day in 1H, up 27% y-o-y and 64% above trend (since 2009, see graph). This also represents the strongest six months for the index since the “heady” days of 2008. The star performer has been the “red hot” container market which has seen record highs, while bulkers also deserve a merit award with their best half year since 2010. LPG earnings were down on 2020 averages but still 21% above trend while LNG, despite some ups and downs, were close to trend. Although there are mitigating circumstances (oil trade is still down 10% on pre-Covid levels and floating storage has “unwound”) tanker earnings averaged their lowest half year period for 30+ years and will be hoping for improvements after the summer. Car carriers have picked up nicely to move 5% above trend (impressive as rates touched all-time lows last year) while Ro-Ro freight has also shown resilience. Offshore oil and gas has improved but still remained ~30% below trend (for a North Sea PSV)
Demand Improvements…
After “losing” ~500mt of trade in 2020, we now estimate that volumes have returned to pre-pandemic levels (in May-20 trade was down 12%). Again a special commendation to containers, with a combination of pent up demand, shifts in consumer spending and economic recovery supporting projected trade of 207m TEU this year, up 6% on 2020. Balancing economic recovery, stimulus, further Covid19 waves and uncertainty over the duration of “supportive” disruption, we project over 12bt of total seaborne trade in 2021.
Supply “Favourable”?
In our previous review, we gave shipping supply an “A for effort”, reflecting on an orderbook under 10% of the fleet (it’s still 8%). Fleet growth of 1.7% in 1H (growth of 36m dwt) remains below trend, although newbuild ordering (24m CGT, $55bn) has picked up to its busiest six months since 2014, surpassing full year 2020 orders (although steel prices and currency movements may make similar order intake in 2H more difficult for yards). However, the stellar S&P market achieved “top marks” with all time record transactions (>85m dwt, up 131% on 1H20 and 31% on 2H, and more than double the long term trend!). At this run rate, ~8% of the fleet will change ownership in 2021. We reported 12m dwt of demo, up 14% on 1H-20 but down 12% on 2H-20.
Those Extra Classes …..
With recovering activity, we estimate that shipping’s emissions have edged up slightly to ~840mt and 2.4% of global CO2. Given the “amplified” focus on energy transition and the developments at IMO (and pending announcements from the EU), let’s hope those extra “classes” on “green and tech” we recommended a few years ago have come in handy (over 25% of orders in 1H were for alternative fuelled vessels). Our continued best wishes from Clarksons Research.
Source: Clarksons Research
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Monday, 23 August 21
CHINESE COAL PRODUCTION RISES 4.9 PCT IN 1ST 7 MONTHS OF 2021 - NBS
Official figures demonstrated that the Chinese raw coal production surged 4.9 percent annually to 2.26 billion tonnes in the January-July period of ...
Friday, 20 August 21
ARE WE LOOKING AT THE NEXT DRY BULK SUPER CYCLE? IS IT EVEN A CYCLE? - BIMCO
Throughout the first half of the year, talk of a new dry bulk super cycle has been on many lips as commodity prices have soared to multi-year highs ...
Friday, 20 August 21
BIMCO'S SHIPPING NUMBER OF THE WEEK: CHINESE IRON ORE IMPORTS FALL TO 14-MONTH LOW IN JULY - PETER SAND
Chinese iron ore imports fell to 88.5 million tonnes in July, the lowest level since May 2020. The fall in July means that accumulated imports are ...
Friday, 20 August 21
SOARING DEMAND FOR THE WORLD’S LEAST-LIKED COMMODITY SEES THERMAL COAL PRICES JUMP 106% THIS YEAR - CNBC
Soaring electricity demand, infrastructure woes and a surge in global gas prices have triggered an extraordinary rally for the world’s least ...
Friday, 20 August 21
CHINA’S IRON ORE IMPORTS CONTRACTED YEAR-ON-YEAR BY 2% IN 2018 AND GREW YEAR-ON-YEAR BY ONLY 1% IN 2019 - COMMODORE RESEARCH
Examining the last ten years of China’s crude steel output and iron ore imports shows that China’s iron ore imports have stayed r ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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