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Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
 A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional individual markets. While previous years’ reports have mentioned “must do better” or “extra classes needed”, even the toughest of examiners would congratulate (tankers aside!?) shipping’s economic performance during the many continued challenges of the pandemic.
Grading the Segments
Our cross-sector ClarkSea Index averaged an encouraging $20,717/day in 1H, up 27% y-o-y and 64% above trend (since 2009, see graph). This also represents the strongest six months for the index since the “heady” days of 2008. The star performer has been the “red hot” container market which has seen record highs, while bulkers also deserve a merit award with their best half year since 2010. LPG earnings were down on 2020 averages but still 21% above trend while LNG, despite some ups and downs, were close to trend. Although there are mitigating circumstances (oil trade is still down 10% on pre-Covid levels and floating storage has “unwound”) tanker earnings averaged their lowest half year period for 30+ years and will be hoping for improvements after the summer. Car carriers have picked up nicely to move 5% above trend (impressive as rates touched all-time lows last year) while Ro-Ro freight has also shown resilience. Offshore oil and gas has improved but still remained ~30% below trend (for a North Sea PSV)
Demand Improvements…
After “losing” ~500mt of trade in 2020, we now estimate that volumes have returned to pre-pandemic levels (in May-20 trade was down 12%). Again a special commendation to containers, with a combination of pent up demand, shifts in consumer spending and economic recovery supporting projected trade of 207m TEU this year, up 6% on 2020. Balancing economic recovery, stimulus, further Covid19 waves and uncertainty over the duration of “supportive” disruption, we project over 12bt of total seaborne trade in 2021.
Supply “Favourable”?
In our previous review, we gave shipping supply an “A for effort”, reflecting on an orderbook under 10% of the fleet (it’s still 8%). Fleet growth of 1.7% in 1H (growth of 36m dwt) remains below trend, although newbuild ordering (24m CGT, $55bn) has picked up to its busiest six months since 2014, surpassing full year 2020 orders (although steel prices and currency movements may make similar order intake in 2H more difficult for yards). However, the stellar S&P market achieved “top marks” with all time record transactions (>85m dwt, up 131% on 1H20 and 31% on 2H, and more than double the long term trend!). At this run rate, ~8% of the fleet will change ownership in 2021. We reported 12m dwt of demo, up 14% on 1H-20 but down 12% on 2H-20.
Those Extra Classes …..
With recovering activity, we estimate that shipping’s emissions have edged up slightly to ~840mt and 2.4% of global CO2. Given the “amplified” focus on energy transition and the developments at IMO (and pending announcements from the EU), let’s hope those extra “classes” on “green and tech” we recommended a few years ago have come in handy (over 25% of orders in 1H were for alternative fuelled vessels). Our continued best wishes from Clarksons Research.
Source: Clarksons Research
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Friday, 27 August 21
THE ECONOMICS OF INDONESIA’S DIESEL POWER PLANT TO GAS CONVERSION PLAN ARE PROBLEMATIC - IEEFA
Deploying new small-scale LNG is an uphill battle for PGN
Indonesian gas is currently in a precarious position, where the government needs to ...
Thursday, 26 August 21
INDIA IMPORTED 17.06 MLN TONNES OF LPG IN 2020; UP 11.5% Y-O-Y
Global LPG trade remained fairly positive in 2020, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19, and surged strongly in the first half of 2021. ...
Thursday, 26 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
24th of August 2021, the Baltic Dry Index reached 4,201, a YTD high and the highest since May 2010.
Cape 5TC daily average @ 51,472
...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
COAL PRICE RALLY TO PRESSURE CHINESE POWER GENCOS’ MARGINS FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the pressure on Chinese power generation companies’ (gencos) profit from the recent coal price surge to weaken their cr ...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
TIGHT POWER SUPPLY IN CHINA AMID STRONG DEMAND, HIGH COAL PRICES - FITCH RATINGS
China experienced tight power supply in 1H21 on stronger than expected power demand as economic activity continued to recover, Fitch Ratings says i ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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