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Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
 A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional individual markets. While previous years’ reports have mentioned “must do better” or “extra classes needed”, even the toughest of examiners would congratulate (tankers aside!?) shipping’s economic performance during the many continued challenges of the pandemic.
Grading the Segments
Our cross-sector ClarkSea Index averaged an encouraging $20,717/day in 1H, up 27% y-o-y and 64% above trend (since 2009, see graph). This also represents the strongest six months for the index since the “heady” days of 2008. The star performer has been the “red hot” container market which has seen record highs, while bulkers also deserve a merit award with their best half year since 2010. LPG earnings were down on 2020 averages but still 21% above trend while LNG, despite some ups and downs, were close to trend. Although there are mitigating circumstances (oil trade is still down 10% on pre-Covid levels and floating storage has “unwound”) tanker earnings averaged their lowest half year period for 30+ years and will be hoping for improvements after the summer. Car carriers have picked up nicely to move 5% above trend (impressive as rates touched all-time lows last year) while Ro-Ro freight has also shown resilience. Offshore oil and gas has improved but still remained ~30% below trend (for a North Sea PSV)
Demand Improvements…
After “losing” ~500mt of trade in 2020, we now estimate that volumes have returned to pre-pandemic levels (in May-20 trade was down 12%). Again a special commendation to containers, with a combination of pent up demand, shifts in consumer spending and economic recovery supporting projected trade of 207m TEU this year, up 6% on 2020. Balancing economic recovery, stimulus, further Covid19 waves and uncertainty over the duration of “supportive” disruption, we project over 12bt of total seaborne trade in 2021.
Supply “Favourable”?
In our previous review, we gave shipping supply an “A for effort”, reflecting on an orderbook under 10% of the fleet (it’s still 8%). Fleet growth of 1.7% in 1H (growth of 36m dwt) remains below trend, although newbuild ordering (24m CGT, $55bn) has picked up to its busiest six months since 2014, surpassing full year 2020 orders (although steel prices and currency movements may make similar order intake in 2H more difficult for yards). However, the stellar S&P market achieved “top marks” with all time record transactions (>85m dwt, up 131% on 1H20 and 31% on 2H, and more than double the long term trend!). At this run rate, ~8% of the fleet will change ownership in 2021. We reported 12m dwt of demo, up 14% on 1H-20 but down 12% on 2H-20.
Those Extra Classes …..
With recovering activity, we estimate that shipping’s emissions have edged up slightly to ~840mt and 2.4% of global CO2. Given the “amplified” focus on energy transition and the developments at IMO (and pending announcements from the EU), let’s hope those extra “classes” on “green and tech” we recommended a few years ago have come in handy (over 25% of orders in 1H were for alternative fuelled vessels). Our continued best wishes from Clarksons Research.
Source: Clarksons Research
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Saturday, 11 September 21
CIL STEPS UP SUPPLY COAL TO POWER SECTOR; PER-DAY AVERAGE 20 PC HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR - PTI
State-owned CIL on Friday said it has stepped up the supply of coal to the power sector in the first eight days of the current month, with an avera ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
RECORD CHINESE COAL FUTURES SIGNAL NEED TO BOOST OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s coal prices have climbed to a record high, signaling the need for more production in the short term, even as the government tries to ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
IN 2022, EIA EXPECTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO INCREASE BY 47 MMST TO 648 MMST
U.S. Coal production accordng to EIA's forecast, totals 601 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 66 MMst more than in 2020, EIA's Short-Term ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
COAL IS STILL KING; INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE ABOVE $150 FOR FIRST TIME IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference rose dramatically from US$ 127.05 in February 2011, to a peak of US$ 150.03 in September 2021, be ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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