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Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
 A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional individual markets. While previous years’ reports have mentioned “must do better” or “extra classes needed”, even the toughest of examiners would congratulate (tankers aside!?) shipping’s economic performance during the many continued challenges of the pandemic.
Grading the Segments
Our cross-sector ClarkSea Index averaged an encouraging $20,717/day in 1H, up 27% y-o-y and 64% above trend (since 2009, see graph). This also represents the strongest six months for the index since the “heady” days of 2008. The star performer has been the “red hot” container market which has seen record highs, while bulkers also deserve a merit award with their best half year since 2010. LPG earnings were down on 2020 averages but still 21% above trend while LNG, despite some ups and downs, were close to trend. Although there are mitigating circumstances (oil trade is still down 10% on pre-Covid levels and floating storage has “unwound”) tanker earnings averaged their lowest half year period for 30+ years and will be hoping for improvements after the summer. Car carriers have picked up nicely to move 5% above trend (impressive as rates touched all-time lows last year) while Ro-Ro freight has also shown resilience. Offshore oil and gas has improved but still remained ~30% below trend (for a North Sea PSV)
Demand Improvements…
After “losing” ~500mt of trade in 2020, we now estimate that volumes have returned to pre-pandemic levels (in May-20 trade was down 12%). Again a special commendation to containers, with a combination of pent up demand, shifts in consumer spending and economic recovery supporting projected trade of 207m TEU this year, up 6% on 2020. Balancing economic recovery, stimulus, further Covid19 waves and uncertainty over the duration of “supportive” disruption, we project over 12bt of total seaborne trade in 2021.
Supply “Favourable”?
In our previous review, we gave shipping supply an “A for effort”, reflecting on an orderbook under 10% of the fleet (it’s still 8%). Fleet growth of 1.7% in 1H (growth of 36m dwt) remains below trend, although newbuild ordering (24m CGT, $55bn) has picked up to its busiest six months since 2014, surpassing full year 2020 orders (although steel prices and currency movements may make similar order intake in 2H more difficult for yards). However, the stellar S&P market achieved “top marks” with all time record transactions (>85m dwt, up 131% on 1H20 and 31% on 2H, and more than double the long term trend!). At this run rate, ~8% of the fleet will change ownership in 2021. We reported 12m dwt of demo, up 14% on 1H-20 but down 12% on 2H-20.
Those Extra Classes …..
With recovering activity, we estimate that shipping’s emissions have edged up slightly to ~840mt and 2.4% of global CO2. Given the “amplified” focus on energy transition and the developments at IMO (and pending announcements from the EU), let’s hope those extra “classes” on “green and tech” we recommended a few years ago have come in handy (over 25% of orders in 1H were for alternative fuelled vessels). Our continued best wishes from Clarksons Research.
Source: Clarksons Research
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Thursday, 23 September 21
RECORD-HIGH GAS PRICES AFFECT MANY EUROPEAN CORPORATE SECTORS - FITCH RATINGS
Record-high natural gas prices are putting pressure on supply chains of many European corporate sectors, including non-integrated energy suppliers, ...
Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of col ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINESE COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA DROP 98.6% AS RESTRICTIONS BITE - BIMCO
In the first seven months of the year Chinese coal imports from Australia have totalled just 780,000 tonnes as Chinese restrictions on Australian c ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT RESUMES GROWTH IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 0.8 percent year on year to 340 million tonnes last month, official data showed.
The growth rate ...
Wednesday, 15 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the oil price sell off during most of August, partly triggered by oil demand fears amid the delta COVID variant, oil prices have resumed ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
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