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Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
 A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional individual markets. While previous years’ reports have mentioned “must do better” or “extra classes needed”, even the toughest of examiners would congratulate (tankers aside!?) shipping’s economic performance during the many continued challenges of the pandemic.
Grading the Segments
Our cross-sector ClarkSea Index averaged an encouraging $20,717/day in 1H, up 27% y-o-y and 64% above trend (since 2009, see graph). This also represents the strongest six months for the index since the “heady” days of 2008. The star performer has been the “red hot” container market which has seen record highs, while bulkers also deserve a merit award with their best half year since 2010. LPG earnings were down on 2020 averages but still 21% above trend while LNG, despite some ups and downs, were close to trend. Although there are mitigating circumstances (oil trade is still down 10% on pre-Covid levels and floating storage has “unwound”) tanker earnings averaged their lowest half year period for 30+ years and will be hoping for improvements after the summer. Car carriers have picked up nicely to move 5% above trend (impressive as rates touched all-time lows last year) while Ro-Ro freight has also shown resilience. Offshore oil and gas has improved but still remained ~30% below trend (for a North Sea PSV)
Demand Improvements…
After “losing” ~500mt of trade in 2020, we now estimate that volumes have returned to pre-pandemic levels (in May-20 trade was down 12%). Again a special commendation to containers, with a combination of pent up demand, shifts in consumer spending and economic recovery supporting projected trade of 207m TEU this year, up 6% on 2020. Balancing economic recovery, stimulus, further Covid19 waves and uncertainty over the duration of “supportive” disruption, we project over 12bt of total seaborne trade in 2021.
Supply “Favourable”?
In our previous review, we gave shipping supply an “A for effort”, reflecting on an orderbook under 10% of the fleet (it’s still 8%). Fleet growth of 1.7% in 1H (growth of 36m dwt) remains below trend, although newbuild ordering (24m CGT, $55bn) has picked up to its busiest six months since 2014, surpassing full year 2020 orders (although steel prices and currency movements may make similar order intake in 2H more difficult for yards). However, the stellar S&P market achieved “top marks” with all time record transactions (>85m dwt, up 131% on 1H20 and 31% on 2H, and more than double the long term trend!). At this run rate, ~8% of the fleet will change ownership in 2021. We reported 12m dwt of demo, up 14% on 1H-20 but down 12% on 2H-20.
Those Extra Classes …..
With recovering activity, we estimate that shipping’s emissions have edged up slightly to ~840mt and 2.4% of global CO2. Given the “amplified” focus on energy transition and the developments at IMO (and pending announcements from the EU), let’s hope those extra “classes” on “green and tech” we recommended a few years ago have come in handy (over 25% of orders in 1H were for alternative fuelled vessels). Our continued best wishes from Clarksons Research.
Source: Clarksons Research
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Wednesday, 28 July 21
IN THE PHILIPPINES, COAL’S DEMISE MAKES WAY FOR A RENEWABLE ENERGY BOOM - IEEFA
Imported gas lock-in could undermine the economic benefits of a clean energy transition
The Philippines’ energy sector is on t ...
Wednesday, 28 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during this first half of the year, we continue to come across surprises and new restrictions which are trembling ...
Saturday, 24 July 21
UNDERSTANDING INDIA'S LATEST PEAK POWER DEMAND RECORD - IEEFA
Ramping up solar will be crucial as peak power demand hits during the day
At around noon on 7 July 2021, India’s instantaneous ...
Wednesday, 21 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Dry Buk Sales and Purchase activity has heated up during 2021, reaching record high levels during the first half of the year. The increased interes ...
Monday, 19 July 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 6.4 PCT IN H1 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output climbed 6.4 percent year on year to 1.95 billion tonnes in the first six months of the year, official data showed.
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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