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Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
 A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional individual markets. While previous years’ reports have mentioned “must do better” or “extra classes needed”, even the toughest of examiners would congratulate (tankers aside!?) shipping’s economic performance during the many continued challenges of the pandemic.
Grading the Segments
Our cross-sector ClarkSea Index averaged an encouraging $20,717/day in 1H, up 27% y-o-y and 64% above trend (since 2009, see graph). This also represents the strongest six months for the index since the “heady” days of 2008. The star performer has been the “red hot” container market which has seen record highs, while bulkers also deserve a merit award with their best half year since 2010. LPG earnings were down on 2020 averages but still 21% above trend while LNG, despite some ups and downs, were close to trend. Although there are mitigating circumstances (oil trade is still down 10% on pre-Covid levels and floating storage has “unwound”) tanker earnings averaged their lowest half year period for 30+ years and will be hoping for improvements after the summer. Car carriers have picked up nicely to move 5% above trend (impressive as rates touched all-time lows last year) while Ro-Ro freight has also shown resilience. Offshore oil and gas has improved but still remained ~30% below trend (for a North Sea PSV)
Demand Improvements…
After “losing” ~500mt of trade in 2020, we now estimate that volumes have returned to pre-pandemic levels (in May-20 trade was down 12%). Again a special commendation to containers, with a combination of pent up demand, shifts in consumer spending and economic recovery supporting projected trade of 207m TEU this year, up 6% on 2020. Balancing economic recovery, stimulus, further Covid19 waves and uncertainty over the duration of “supportive” disruption, we project over 12bt of total seaborne trade in 2021.
Supply “Favourable”?
In our previous review, we gave shipping supply an “A for effort”, reflecting on an orderbook under 10% of the fleet (it’s still 8%). Fleet growth of 1.7% in 1H (growth of 36m dwt) remains below trend, although newbuild ordering (24m CGT, $55bn) has picked up to its busiest six months since 2014, surpassing full year 2020 orders (although steel prices and currency movements may make similar order intake in 2H more difficult for yards). However, the stellar S&P market achieved “top marks” with all time record transactions (>85m dwt, up 131% on 1H20 and 31% on 2H, and more than double the long term trend!). At this run rate, ~8% of the fleet will change ownership in 2021. We reported 12m dwt of demo, up 14% on 1H-20 but down 12% on 2H-20.
Those Extra Classes …..
With recovering activity, we estimate that shipping’s emissions have edged up slightly to ~840mt and 2.4% of global CO2. Given the “amplified” focus on energy transition and the developments at IMO (and pending announcements from the EU), let’s hope those extra “classes” on “green and tech” we recommended a few years ago have come in handy (over 25% of orders in 1H were for alternative fuelled vessels). Our continued best wishes from Clarksons Research.
Source: Clarksons Research
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Sunday, 11 July 21
COAL SHOWS ITS STAYING POWER AS ECONOMIES BOUNCE BACK - THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Coal use is surging in some of the world’s largest economies as electricity demand rebounds from the pandemic, illustrating the challenges to ...
Sunday, 11 July 21
ROBUST CHINA COAL DEMAND AMID AUSTRALIA IMPORT BAN FUELS PRICE RALLY - REUTERS
Seaborne coal has become a quiet winner among energy commodities, lacking the attention of higher-profile crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) ...
Saturday, 10 July 21
OVERESTIMATED LCOES OF COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS CREATE A FINANCIAL BUBBLE - IEEFA
Massive stranded asset risk detrimentally affects the financial and power distribution
India’s future coal-fired power project pipeline ...
Friday, 09 July 21
EIA FORECASTS COAL’S GENERATION SHARE IN U.S TO RISE FROM 20% IN 2020 TO 24% THIS YEAR BUT TO FALL TO 22% NEXT YEAR
The July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) of EIA remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty related to the ongoing economic recovery from ...
Friday, 09 July 21
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. INVITES BIDS FOR 1.86 MILLION TONS OF COAL OF 5600 & 4000 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 280,000 – 300,000 MT of Min. ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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