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Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
 A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional individual markets. While previous years’ reports have mentioned “must do better” or “extra classes needed”, even the toughest of examiners would congratulate (tankers aside!?) shipping’s economic performance during the many continued challenges of the pandemic.
Grading the Segments
Our cross-sector ClarkSea Index averaged an encouraging $20,717/day in 1H, up 27% y-o-y and 64% above trend (since 2009, see graph). This also represents the strongest six months for the index since the “heady” days of 2008. The star performer has been the “red hot” container market which has seen record highs, while bulkers also deserve a merit award with their best half year since 2010. LPG earnings were down on 2020 averages but still 21% above trend while LNG, despite some ups and downs, were close to trend. Although there are mitigating circumstances (oil trade is still down 10% on pre-Covid levels and floating storage has “unwound”) tanker earnings averaged their lowest half year period for 30+ years and will be hoping for improvements after the summer. Car carriers have picked up nicely to move 5% above trend (impressive as rates touched all-time lows last year) while Ro-Ro freight has also shown resilience. Offshore oil and gas has improved but still remained ~30% below trend (for a North Sea PSV)
Demand Improvements…
After “losing” ~500mt of trade in 2020, we now estimate that volumes have returned to pre-pandemic levels (in May-20 trade was down 12%). Again a special commendation to containers, with a combination of pent up demand, shifts in consumer spending and economic recovery supporting projected trade of 207m TEU this year, up 6% on 2020. Balancing economic recovery, stimulus, further Covid19 waves and uncertainty over the duration of “supportive” disruption, we project over 12bt of total seaborne trade in 2021.
Supply “Favourable”?
In our previous review, we gave shipping supply an “A for effort”, reflecting on an orderbook under 10% of the fleet (it’s still 8%). Fleet growth of 1.7% in 1H (growth of 36m dwt) remains below trend, although newbuild ordering (24m CGT, $55bn) has picked up to its busiest six months since 2014, surpassing full year 2020 orders (although steel prices and currency movements may make similar order intake in 2H more difficult for yards). However, the stellar S&P market achieved “top marks” with all time record transactions (>85m dwt, up 131% on 1H20 and 31% on 2H, and more than double the long term trend!). At this run rate, ~8% of the fleet will change ownership in 2021. We reported 12m dwt of demo, up 14% on 1H-20 but down 12% on 2H-20.
Those Extra Classes …..
With recovering activity, we estimate that shipping’s emissions have edged up slightly to ~840mt and 2.4% of global CO2. Given the “amplified” focus on energy transition and the developments at IMO (and pending announcements from the EU), let’s hope those extra “classes” on “green and tech” we recommended a few years ago have come in handy (over 25% of orders in 1H were for alternative fuelled vessels). Our continued best wishes from Clarksons Research.
Source: Clarksons Research
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Friday, 09 July 21
CAN WE EXPECT AFFORDABLE POWER SUPPLY BY REPLACING COAL BASED POWER WITH LNG? - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Bangladesh government’s recent decision to cancel the contracts for 10 coal fired power plants in late June 2021 has invited interest in the ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES TO 112 MONTHS HIGH IN JULY 2021; 121.15% HIGHER COMPARED TO THAT IN JULY 2020 PRICE
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for July 2021 fixed at US$ 115.35 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal price referenc ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS FELL BY 37% YOY IN 1Q21 DUE TO ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Chinese coal imports declined by 25% yoy in 5M21as a result of both restrictions on Australian coal and the high base in 2020. Import volume in Jan ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN 4,200 INDEX HAS ALSO INCREASED TO OVER USD50 PER TONNE SINCE MAY THIS YEAR REFLECTING STRONG CHINESE IMPORT DEMAND - FITCH RATINGS
Price Surge Since March
APAC thermal coal has resumed its price surge since March this year. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade c ...
Thursday, 01 July 21
WHY INDIA’S SOLAR POWER TARIFFS ARE CLIMBING AFTER HITTING RECORD LOWS LAST YEAR - IEEFA
What’s behind the recent increase?
Solar tariffs are deflationary. Prices have fallen by 75% in seven years in India, and in 2 ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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