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Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
 A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional individual markets. While previous years’ reports have mentioned “must do better” or “extra classes needed”, even the toughest of examiners would congratulate (tankers aside!?) shipping’s economic performance during the many continued challenges of the pandemic.
Grading the Segments
Our cross-sector ClarkSea Index averaged an encouraging $20,717/day in 1H, up 27% y-o-y and 64% above trend (since 2009, see graph). This also represents the strongest six months for the index since the “heady” days of 2008. The star performer has been the “red hot” container market which has seen record highs, while bulkers also deserve a merit award with their best half year since 2010. LPG earnings were down on 2020 averages but still 21% above trend while LNG, despite some ups and downs, were close to trend. Although there are mitigating circumstances (oil trade is still down 10% on pre-Covid levels and floating storage has “unwound”) tanker earnings averaged their lowest half year period for 30+ years and will be hoping for improvements after the summer. Car carriers have picked up nicely to move 5% above trend (impressive as rates touched all-time lows last year) while Ro-Ro freight has also shown resilience. Offshore oil and gas has improved but still remained ~30% below trend (for a North Sea PSV)
Demand Improvements…
After “losing” ~500mt of trade in 2020, we now estimate that volumes have returned to pre-pandemic levels (in May-20 trade was down 12%). Again a special commendation to containers, with a combination of pent up demand, shifts in consumer spending and economic recovery supporting projected trade of 207m TEU this year, up 6% on 2020. Balancing economic recovery, stimulus, further Covid19 waves and uncertainty over the duration of “supportive” disruption, we project over 12bt of total seaborne trade in 2021.
Supply “Favourable”?
In our previous review, we gave shipping supply an “A for effort”, reflecting on an orderbook under 10% of the fleet (it’s still 8%). Fleet growth of 1.7% in 1H (growth of 36m dwt) remains below trend, although newbuild ordering (24m CGT, $55bn) has picked up to its busiest six months since 2014, surpassing full year 2020 orders (although steel prices and currency movements may make similar order intake in 2H more difficult for yards). However, the stellar S&P market achieved “top marks” with all time record transactions (>85m dwt, up 131% on 1H20 and 31% on 2H, and more than double the long term trend!). At this run rate, ~8% of the fleet will change ownership in 2021. We reported 12m dwt of demo, up 14% on 1H-20 but down 12% on 2H-20.
Those Extra Classes …..
With recovering activity, we estimate that shipping’s emissions have edged up slightly to ~840mt and 2.4% of global CO2. Given the “amplified” focus on energy transition and the developments at IMO (and pending announcements from the EU), let’s hope those extra “classes” on “green and tech” we recommended a few years ago have come in handy (over 25% of orders in 1H were for alternative fuelled vessels). Our continued best wishes from Clarksons Research.
Source: Clarksons Research
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Friday, 09 July 21
CAN WE EXPECT AFFORDABLE POWER SUPPLY BY REPLACING COAL BASED POWER WITH LNG? - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Bangladesh government’s recent decision to cancel the contracts for 10 coal fired power plants in late June 2021 has invited interest in the ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES TO 112 MONTHS HIGH IN JULY 2021; 121.15% HIGHER COMPARED TO THAT IN JULY 2020 PRICE
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for July 2021 fixed at US$ 115.35 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal price referenc ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS FELL BY 37% YOY IN 1Q21 DUE TO ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Chinese coal imports declined by 25% yoy in 5M21as a result of both restrictions on Australian coal and the high base in 2020. Import volume in Jan ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN 4,200 INDEX HAS ALSO INCREASED TO OVER USD50 PER TONNE SINCE MAY THIS YEAR REFLECTING STRONG CHINESE IMPORT DEMAND - FITCH RATINGS
Price Surge Since March
APAC thermal coal has resumed its price surge since March this year. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade c ...
Thursday, 01 July 21
WHY INDIA’S SOLAR POWER TARIFFS ARE CLIMBING AFTER HITTING RECORD LOWS LAST YEAR - IEEFA
What’s behind the recent increase?
Solar tariffs are deflationary. Prices have fallen by 75% in seven years in India, and in 2 ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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