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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Monday, 25 October 21
A QUESTION OF POSSESSION - THE BALTIC EXCHANGE
Possession and tangibility are closely related concepts long established under English law. Yet a change to these concepts is around the corner. Th ...
Monday, 25 October 21
CHINA VOWS TO SEVERELY PUNISH MARKET VIOLATIONS AMID LOW COAL FUTURES PRICES - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic coal futures had plunged for three consecutive trading days after the government vowed to crack down on soaring prices, and China’s ...
Monday, 25 October 21
FARMERS MAY JOIN THE COAL COMMODITY MARKET TO REDUCE RISKS - GLOBAL TIMES
A recent trip to by the Global Times to East China’s Shandong Province to get a glimpse of China’s coal supply chain revealed a surpris ...
Monday, 25 October 21
CHINA COAL PRICES MARK WORST WEEK SINCE MAY ON GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures plunged on Friday and turned in their worst week in five months, following Beijing’s strongest interventio ...
Friday, 22 October 21
THE BIG PICTURE: ENERGY MARKETS - BREAK WAVE ADVISORS
The shipping markets have been pulled further into wild markets of coal and other energy sources. Given how nebulous this sector is, it’s alw ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- The University of Queensland
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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