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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA COAL HITS RECORD HIGH AMID TIGHT SUPPLIES - REUTERS
China coal prices hit a record high on Tuesday buoyed by a widening power crunch and cold weather despite Beijing’s efforts to bolster supply ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
IMO 2020, Ballast Water Treatment regulations, Green Recycling, GHG emissions, EEXI, CII, ETS, Fit for 55, Carbon price/levy, the Poseidon Principl ...
Tuesday, 19 October 21
SPONGE IRON SECTOR MIGHT REPORT NEGATIVE GROWTH DUE TO COAL CRISIS: SIMA - PTI
The domestic sponge iron industry might report a negative growth in the ongoing December quarter “if the shortage of coal is allowed to conti ...
Tuesday, 19 October 21
COAL INDIA, THE FALL GUY FOR POWER CRISIS - INDIA EXPRESS
The post-Covid economic recovery has led to a major increase in the demand for power, both in India and globally. In India, coal-based power plants ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
SOLAR INSTALLATION SURGE PUTS INDIA ON TRACK TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER AS EARLY AS 2024 - IEEFA
Recent increase in solar power installations could push coal to peak sooner than expected
If India keeps installing solar capacity a ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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