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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Friday, 22 October 21
CHINA WANTS TO COOL COAL PRICES. SIMILAR MOVES FOR METALS, CRUDE FAILED - REUTERS
China’s latest attempt to lower runaway commodity prices, this time for thermal coal, is likely to follow a familiar pattern of initial succe ...
Friday, 22 October 21
HARD COAL REMAINS AN IMPORTANT FACTOR FOR SECURITY OF SUPPLY - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
- Hard coal remains an important factor for security of supply
- Increase of around 35% in hard-coal-fired power generation in the first three ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S COAL SHORTAGE TO EASE IN COMING MONTHS, INDUSTRY BODY SAYS - REUTERS
China’s coal shortage will likely ease in coming months, with domestic production and imports already showing signs of picking up, a coal ind ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT DROPS IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output dropped 0.9 percent year on year to 330 million tonnes last month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
OVER-RELIANCE ON COAL IN OUR POWER MIX HURTING INDIA - LIVEMINT
In spite of the renewables push, coal still accounts for about 50% of India’s installed power capacity. That means a simultaneous demand and ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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