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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Monday, 01 November 21
COAL PRICES HAVE FURTHER ROOM TO DROP: TOP ECONOMIC PLANNER - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner said coal prices have further room to drop on Friday, as the most traded coal futures dropped to below 1,000 yua ...
Saturday, 30 October 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICES SEE BIGGEST WEEKLY FALL IN MORE THAN 5 YEARS - REUTERS
China’s coal futures prices saw their biggest fall in more than five years after the powerful state planner said there is still room to adjus ...
Saturday, 30 October 21
G-20 LEADERS PREPARE STATEMENT TO STOP FUNDING FOREIGN COAL PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Leaders of the Group of 20 wealthy economies are preparing to pledge to stop funding foreign coal-fired plants, but are still wrangling over climat ...
Friday, 29 October 21
APAC THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO REMAIN TIGHT AS WINTER LOOMS - FITCH RATINGS
APAC thermal coal prices have surged, hitting historically high levels. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal reached USD228/tonne in mid ...
Thursday, 28 October 21
CANADA BAN ON SHIPPING COAL WOULD EQUAL SCRAPPING AS MANY AS 3 MILLION CARS - IEEFA
Canada ban on shipping coal would equal scrapping as many as 3 million cars
Change in Canadian policy could have major implications ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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