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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Thursday, 04 November 21
FASTER DECARBONISATION: BACK TO BASICS FOR THE MINING INDUSTRY? - WOOD MACKENZIE
To the uninitiated, rugby is a technical and complicated game. As young schoolboys it was all a wee bit confusing and we invariably ended up on the ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA TO LAUNCH NEW DATA MONITORING SYSTEM, TARGETING COAL MARKET SPECULATION, HOARDING - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner announced on Sunday a new data system for supervising the implementation of medium- and long-term contracts of c ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA’S STATE PLANNER SAYS COAL SUPPLY IMPROVING, PRICES STABILISING - REUTERS
China’s coal supply situation has seen significant improvement with joint efforts from coal producers, logistics and downstream users, while ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
HIGHER COKING COAL PRICES TO PARE PROFITABILITY OF STEELMAKERS IN SECOND HALF OF FY22 - CRISIL RATINGS
The operating margin of primary steelmakers will reduce by a third to 24-26% in the second half of this fiscal versus the first half as input cost ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stati ...
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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