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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Thursday, 11 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
Tuesday, 09 November 21
ASIA-PACIFIC IS HOME TO SOME OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST CARBON-EMITTERS - 2 CHARTS SHOW ITS RELIANCE ON COAL - CNBC
Asia-Pacific is home to some of the world’s largest carbon emitters — and experts say much of global efforts to fight climate change de ...
Tuesday, 09 November 21
CHINA DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS MULTI-YEAR PEAK, PRICES EXPECTED TO FALL - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output hit 11.93 million tonnes last week, a multi-year high as more capacity returned to operation, the state planner sai ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
CHINA'S COAL MARKET SEES SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner has declared initial success in its efforts to ensure coal supply and stabilize prices, saying that daily coal o ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
CHINA THERMAL COAL PRICES RISE AFTER FALLING FOR 10 DAYS - REUTERS
China thermal coal futures rebounded on Wednesday after falling for 10 days on an expected jump in fuel demand to meet heating needs amid forecasts ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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