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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Wednesday, 24 November 21
WHY THIS MINING ANALYST IS UPBEAT ON THE IRON ORE PRICE FORECAST - MOTLEY FOOL
In many ways, 2021 can be called the year of the iron ore price. Much of the talk of the ASX town this year has revolved around this key economic m ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
PRICE OF CHINA’S COAL FUTURE DROPS BY 60% AS NATIONWIDE DAILY OUTPUT REACHES OVER 12 MILLION TONS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s daily coal output has now stabilized after reaching over 12 million tons and the price of coal futures has declined to 800 yuan ($125 ...
Friday, 19 November 21
CHINA: COAL SUPPLIES TO STABILIZE FOR COMING COLD SEASON
China is capable of ensuring stable coal supplies this winter and next spring with the increase in coal production and the rising stockpiles at pow ...
Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
EARNINGS RECOVERY IN INDONESIAN COAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH 2021, BUT SLOW IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
The recovery in the operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors is likely to slow in 2022, but coal prices s ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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