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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Friday, 26 November 21
CHINA FINDS COMPLIANCE PROBLEMS IN COAL PRICE INDEX PROBE - REUTERS
China’s state planner on Wednesday said it had discovered some “noncompliant” behaviour among coal price index providers as it an ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
SE ASIA POWER DEMAND TO RISE AS STATE SUPPORT MITIGATES COVID-19 IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
Electricity demand in south-east Asia is likely to increase in 2021, following slow growth or contraction in 2020, thanks to state support that has ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to glob ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICE DROPS IN MID-NOVEMBER AMID GOVERNMENT’S SWEEPING MEASURES - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s coal prices have dropped significantly in mid-November compared with the beginning of the month, with the price of coking coal and co ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Inflation is the word that has dominated the meetings of foreign leaders and finance ministers in recent weeks, as rising energy costs, supply chai ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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