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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Wednesday, 01 December 21
SUPPLY OF COAL TO POWER PLANTS IN NOV MORE THAN CONSUMPTION: JOSHI - PTI
The supply of coal to power plants in November is more than the consumption, resulting in rise in stock of dry fuel at power plants, and this trend ...
Wednesday, 01 December 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Essentially, anyone involved in the shipping and commodity markets still struggle with commodity supply issues and skyrocketing prices in the conte ...
Tuesday, 30 November 21
CHINA'S TOP ECONOMIC PLANNER SUMMONS COAL PRODUCERS; LONG-TERM PRICING MECHANISM IS ADVISED - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said on Monday that they summoned coal producers for a hea ...
Tuesday, 30 November 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICES PLUNGE AFTER GOVT SIGNALS MORE PRICE REGULATION - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures dropped 5.6% on Monday after the state economic planner signaled further regulations for prices of the dirty pow ...
Friday, 26 November 21
AS COAL MARKET STABILIZES, CHINA STEPS UP NATURAL GAS SUPPLY TO MEET WINTER DEMAND - GLOBAL TIMES
The daily supply of natural gas in China has exceeded 1 billion cubic meters (bcm) since November began, up 11 percent year-on-year, data from stat ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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