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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Tuesday, 14 December 21
COAL LOCK-IN IN SOUTHEAST ASIA PRESENTS A CHALLENGE FOR THE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK'S COAL RETIREMENT PLAN - IEEFA
In August, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) announced an ambitious plan to buy high emissions coal-fired power plants in Southeast Asia and retire ...
Saturday, 11 December 21
BUNKER BUYERS LOSE UP TO $5/MT FOR NOT COVERING ENOUGH SUPPLIERS - INTEGR8 FUELS
With the Brent price recently touching the $80 mark and before the Omicron variant concerns pushed it lower, bunker prices reached levels not seen ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
SUPERCYCLE DEMAND: ARE WE THERE YET? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Taking young children on a long journey is fraught with challenges, not least the inevitable question a few minutes after leaving: are we there yet ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
COAL WOULD REMAIN ENERGY LEADER FOR AT LEAST 15 YEARS - LIVEMINT
Coal India Ltd (CIL) has been in the eye of the storm after fuel stocks at coal-fuelled power plants depleted in October. Fuel stocks since are bei ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
GLOBAL SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE FROM POSITIVE ON THE BACK OF PEAKING EARNINGS DURING 2021 - MOODY'S
The outlook for the global shipping industry is changed to stable from positive for the next 12 to 18 months due to demand slightly outstripping su ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- VISA Power Limited - India
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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