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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Thursday, 23 December 21
COAL DEMAND TO PEAK IN INDIA BY 2030, WILL BACK UP RENEWABLES: NITI REPORT - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal will remain India’s mainstay energy source and the country will shape global demand this decade, two reports have said a month after the ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL OUTPUT SEEN BETWEEN 637 MLN-664 MLN T- OFFICIAL - REUTERS
Indonesia’s 2022 coal output is estimated at between 637 million to 664 million tonnes based on production plans currently being finalised, s ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
VALE ANNOUNCES THE SALE OF ITS COAL ASSETS
Vale informs that, on this date, it has entered into a binding agreement with Vulcan to sell the Moatize coal mine and the Nacala Logistics Corrido ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
INDIA: CAPTIVE POWER PRODUCERS URGE GOVT TO ENSURE NORMAL COAL SUPPLIES - PTI
A captive power producers’ association has urged the government for 100 per cent normalisation of coal supply to captive power producers whil ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As an outstanding year for the dry bulk freight market comes to a close, so does a thriving year for the SnP market which can only be compared to 2 ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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