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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Friday, 21 January 22
CHINA'S POWER TRADING TARIFFS TO RISE IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
Rising trading volume and higher-than-benchmark tariffs in the 2022 bilateral contracts signed between Chinese power generation companies (gencos) ...
Thursday, 20 January 22
CHINESE COAL JUMPS OVER 6% ON PRE-HOLIDAY SUPPLY WORRY - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures soared more than 6% on Wednesday, hitting a level last seen in late November as investors grew concerned over ti ...
Thursday, 20 January 22
VIETNAM: COAL SECTOR SEES POSITIVE PROSPECT IN 2022 - VNA
With many signs of rising demand for coal in various economic sectors in 2022, the Vietnam National Coal – Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomi ...
Wednesday, 19 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Since the beginning of the year, we have been witnessing the BDI correcting downwards with sizable drops across all segments. Latest similar levels ...
Sunday, 09 January 22
INDONESIA MINISTER SAYS 'EMERGENCY OVER' ON COAL SUPPLY CRUNCH - REUTERS
Indonesia’s power emergency which has triggered a coal export ban is over but the government will still continue to discuss policies in this ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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