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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Wednesday, 02 February 22
COAL STORAGE IN CHINA’S POWER PLANTS NEAR RECORD HIGHS - XINHUA
Coal inflows into China’s power plants have picked up, bringing their coal storage to near record highs, the National Development and Reform ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
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Monday, 31 January 22
HOW INDONESIA'S COAL EXPORT BAN COULD IMPACT INDIA - IEEFA
What does it mean for power generation and energy security?
Not long ago, India faced coal shortages due to a decline in domestic co ...
Sunday, 30 January 22
AIR PRODUCTS' COAL GASIFICATION PROPOSAL TRIGGERS LOOMING POLICY DISPUTES IN INDONESIA - IEEFA
Plan to substitute Indonesia’s LPG imports with dimethyl ether may be hard to realize due to conflicting business interests
In ...
Sunday, 30 January 22
ENDGAME FOR NEW COAL POWER PROJECTS? - IEEFA INDIA
Retired coal units must be replaced only by assets that can provide grid flexibility
Reportedly, an expert committee appointed by th ...
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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