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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Thursday, 10 February 22
EIA ANALYSIS CONSIDERS DIFFERENT OUTCOMES FOR COAL MARKETS IN INDIA AND SOUTHEAST ASIA
In our International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021) Issues in Focus: Uncertainty in Coal Trade in India and Greater Southeast Asia, we analyze three ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
OIL PRICES: "IT'S GOING TO BE VERY EASY" TO GET TO $100/BARREL, ANALYST SAYS - YAHOO FINANCE
Energy and oil prices have been on fire over the last six months — and expect them to go higher, says one analyst.
“For ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China& ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
FEBRUARY HBA HITS RECORD HIGH IN 2022 ON INDONESIA’S EXPORT BAN IN JANUARY, WORSEN SUPPLY, UKRAINE TENSIONS
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for February in a steep climb from January 2022.
As expected in January the Indonesia ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
CHINESE COAL MARKS BEST DAY IN 4 MONTHS ON TIGHT SUPPLY, HIGH DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s coal futures on Tuesday recorded their best session since Bejing’s mid-October intervention to cool runaway prices, aided by co ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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