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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Thursday, 17 February 22
MAJOR INSTITUTIONS PROVIDED OVER $1.5 TRLN TO COAL SECTOR IN 2019-2021, SAYS NGO GROUP - REUTERS
Financial institutions channelled more than $1.5 trillion into the coal industry in loans and underwriting from January 2019 to November 2021, even ...
Thursday, 17 February 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES TO EASE ON END OF INDONESIA EXPORT BAN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings-Shanghai/Singapore-14 February 2022: APAC thermal coal prices are likely to come under pressure in the near term due to seasonally we ...
Tuesday, 15 February 22
IS ANOTHER COAL SHORTAGE CRISIS LOOMING OVER INDIA? - BUSINESS STANDARD
In December last year, the Federation of Indian Mineral Industries (FIMI) shot off a letter to the Prime Minister claiming that the coal crisis was ...
Tuesday, 15 February 22
THERMAL COAL'S RECORD PRICE RUN MAY END UP ITS OWN WORST ENEMY - REUTERS
The price of benchmark Australian thermal coal rose last week to trade near record highs, providing a short-term boost to producers but increasing ...
Thursday, 10 February 22
INDONESIA: COAL EXPORT BAN - SKULD
Indonesia's coal export ban in the light of force majeure and off-hire clauses
In January 2022, Indonesia, the world's biggest exporte ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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