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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Friday, 04 February 22
RENEWABLES ON THE RISE, COAL CONTINUOUSLY FALLING - EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Although oil (34.5%) and natural gas (23.7%) were still the most important fuel sources in the EU energy mix in 2020, renewable energy’s shar ...
Thursday, 03 February 22
COAL SHORTAGE NOW AT ALARMING LEVELS, SAY ALUMINIUM PRODUCERS - IANS
With no relief in sight despite coal stocks running critically low and production disruptions looming across the Indian aluminium sector, the Alumi ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
HIGH COKING COAL PRICES PROVIDE GLIMPSE INTO STEELMAKING'S FUTURE - MCKINSEY
Last year was a volatile one in global commodity markets. Demand for coking coal, an essential raw material in the production of steel, was extreme ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
INDONESIA'S RESTRICTIONS ON COMMODITIES RATTLE MARKETS, MORE MOVES LIKELY - REUTERS
In just the first month of this year, Indonesian policymakers have rattled global markets with restrictions on some of its biggest commodities expo ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
CHINA'S TOP COAL PRODUCER FORECASTS 28 PCT PROFIT GROWTH IN 2021 - XINHUA
China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, one of the country’s biggest coal producers, said its net profits are expected to jump by 28 percent in ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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