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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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