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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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