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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
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