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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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