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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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