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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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