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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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