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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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